Donald Trump is set to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday for a highly anticipated summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, marking the first visit by a US president to China in nearly a decade. The last such visit was also by Trump in 2017, during his first term, when Beijing rolled out a lavish welcome, including a private tour of the Forbidden City and a Peking opera performance, described as a "state visit-plus."
However, the intervening nine years have seen a trade war, a global pandemic, heightened US concern over Chinese military activity, and another trade war. Trump's trip has been delayed by his attack on Iran, a demonstration of US power limits, and shortened to two days. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution noted that the summit comes at a time when Trump has experienced a "catastrophic strategic debacle," altering the perceived US ascendance.
Key Issues on the Agenda
Trade and Economic Deals
The summit follows a temporary truce in the trade war agreed in Busan last October, after tariffs reached as high as 145%. China responded by restricting rare earth exports, impacting US industries. Trump is expected to be accompanied by CEOs from Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, Boeing, and Citigroup, seeking tangible wins before the midterm elections. China aims to extend the trade truce, preserve technology access, and roll back export controls, possibly offering substantial US investments. Beijing is in talks with Boeing for a deal including 500 737 Max jets, and agricultural purchases such as 25 million tonnes of soya beans annually are under discussion. China may also offer stable rare earth supply arrangements.
Iran and the Middle East
The war in Iran has shifted summit dynamics, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatening China's economy. China has been credited with pushing Iran toward a ceasefire. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on China to "step up with some diplomacy," while Trump plans to address China's energy purchases from Iran. However, China's influence over Iran is limited; Professor Dali Yang described the relationship as "delicate." Beijing views the Iran crisis as a US-made problem and a distant conflict.
Taiwan and Regional Security
Taiwan remains a critical issue, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi calling it the "biggest risk" in US-China relations. Beijing claims Taiwan as part of its territory and vows to take control by force if necessary. Trump has taken a softer stance than previous presidents, describing Taiwan as an economic competitor. An $11 billion US arms package for Taiwan has reportedly been stalled. Beijing may push for the US to shift its rhetoric from "does not support" Taiwanese independence to "opposes." Analysts warn that any concession on Taiwan could spook regional allies.
Other Topics
Cooperation on countering fentanyl trafficking and human rights cases involving figures like Jimmy Lai and Pastor Jin Mingri could arise. The AI arms race between the US and China is another long-term concern, with Xi potentially seeking to demonstrate cooperation on global standards.
Trump enters the talks from a vulnerable position, with domestic disapproval at a record high of 62%. Jonathan Czin of the Brookings Institution cautioned that a very positive meeting could be the worst outcome, as it might signal an accommodation that worries the region. "If Beijing is very happy with how the meeting has gone, that's probably a worrisome sign for the United States," he said.
