Wes Streeting has resigned as Health Secretary, delivering a devastating blow to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. In his resignation letter, Streeting declared, 'Where we need vision, we have a vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift,' and urged Starmer to step down. However, the political vacuum has only deepened as Starmer refuses to resign despite over 90 MPs calling for his departure.
Leadership Challenge Looms
Rohan McWilliam, Director of the Labour History Research Unit at Anglia Ruskin University, explained that a leadership challenge is inevitable but not immediate. 'British politics is essentially waiting on Andy Burnham,' he said. Streeting's letter hinted at a potential post-Starmer government, but it remains unclear if any MP will stand down for Burnham or if he would win a by-election.
Labour's Rulebook on Challenges
Under Labour rules, 20% of MPs (81 members) must back a challenger to trigger a contest. If a challenge occurs, Starmer would be a candidate unless he resigns. Party members would then vote in a preferential ballot, requiring 50% of votes to win.
Starmer's Options
If Starmer resigns, a caretaker Prime Minister would likely be appointed from the cabinet, possibly Yvette Cooper or John Healey. If he delays resignation until the September party conference, he would become a lame duck, stalling government operations. However, McWilliam doubts Starmer will initiate a contest himself, noting that John Major's standing was damaged even after winning a similar challenge.
Historical Context
The Labour Party lacks a history of 'regicide,' unlike the Conservatives. Previous challenges to Hugh Gaitskell in 1960 and Neil Kinnock in 1988 were seen off. The closest parallel is Jeremy Corbyn's leadership after the Brexit referendum, but he was not Prime Minister. Challenges to Prime Ministers were rare before Margaret Thatcher's ouster in 1990 but have become more common since 2016.
What's Next?
With Westminster in a febrile state, predictions are difficult. McWilliam suggests that if a contest occurs, candidates would likely be Starmer, Streeting, and Angela Rayner. For now, Starmer faces an uncertain future, with the immediate path unclear but fraught with peril.
