What happens to Labour if Andy Burnham does not win the Makerfield by-election? This question, perhaps too unsettling for many Labour MPs to consider, is worth examining as the by-election day approaches. The outcome remains uncertain, and while much commentary has focused on how Burnham might act after being elected or even how he would govern if he successfully ousts Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, a loss would trigger a very different scenario.
The Challenge Ahead
The Mayor of Greater Manchester faces a formidable challenge. Pollsters agree that Makerfield would likely vote for Reform UK if any other Labour candidate were standing. The press is scrutinising Burnham intensely, far beyond the norm for a by-election, because a victory is widely seen as a stepping stone to becoming Prime Minister. Reform UK has selected a local candidate, Robert Kenyon, dubbed the "Plucky Plumber" by Nigel Farage. Kenyon, a former Army reservist and NHS worker, has a decent CV despite some questionable social media history. All the ingredients are in place for a major upset.
Potential Fallout of a Loss
If Burnham loses, the consequences would be severe. Josh Simons, the Labour MP who stood down to allow Burnham to return to the Commons, would face criticism for the gamble. But the impact would extend beyond losing one seat to Reform UK. It would demonstrate that Farage's candidates can defeat any Labour figure anywhere, giving Reform unstoppable momentum.
For the government, Starmer is already in a precarious position after the party's poor performance in the May 7 elections. A Burnham loss would prolong that sense of political purgatory. Wes Streeting would likely launch a leadership bid, prompting counter-bids from Angela Rayner or Ed Miliband, despite their stated reluctance to lead. However, Streeting may struggle to win over Labour members, and Starmer could play the "stability" card to fend off challengers.
Burnham is the only Labour figure with genuine public popularity. Risking Tory-style chaos for anyone else seems unwise. In my view, a Burnham loss would likely lock in Starmer until the next general election. Whether that benefits the country, the Labour Party, or Nigel Farage's prospects remains uncertain. Some may prefer not to think about it at all.
