Cheng Li-wun of Kuomintang, Taiwan's largest opposition party, met with Xi Jinping in Beijing in April 2026. The Guardian's editorial examines China's dual strategy of carrots and sticks toward Taiwan, warning that President Donald Trump should not compromise US support for the island during his upcoming visit to Beijing.
China's Strategic Opportunity
China sees an opportunity when Trump visits later this month. A transactional US president in need of a trade deal and hoping Beijing can influence Iran might shift on Taiwan in return. Foreign Minister Wang Yi linked the issue to broader bilateral cooperation in a call with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Beijing would welcome a softening of the US position and a pullback on arms sales after an $11 billion package was announced late last year.
Taiwan's Status and China's Goals
Taiwan has been self-governed since 1949 and has never been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party. Unification is central to Xi Jinping's legacy. Three years ago, US intelligence assessed he ordered the People's Liberation Army to prepare for invasion by 2027, but Beijing prefers a non-military solution. A blockade, simulated in December drills, would come at a heavy economic cost and could escalate quickly. China may continue building military and economic might while increasing intimidation until the US avoids intervention or Taiwan feels it has no choice. Even a small shift in US rhetoric could help make unification seem inevitable to Taiwan.
Military and Political Calculations
Analysts believe China is unlikely to take military action in the next two years. Some see a short window: another US president might be more staunch on Taiwan; the current administration is focused on the Middle East and depleting munitions; Taiwan's defense spending surge has yet to take effect. However, Trump is unpredictable. Iran shows that great powers can act as they wish but may regret it. Beijing believes the US is in decline while its own power grows, though its armed forces are roiled by purges.
With a 2028 presidential election in Taiwan and the two main opposition parties uniting for local polls this year, China sees an improving political outlook. Any belief that Taiwan's people might embrace "one country, two systems" was killed by Beijing's erosion of Hong Kong's freedoms. Intimidation tactics have increased suspicion; about two-thirds of Taiwan's population sees China as a major threat. The proportion identifying as "Taiwanese-only" has more than tripled to 63% since 1992. Still, many see improving relations as pragmatic.
Last month, Xi hosted Kuomintang leader Cheng Li-wun, the first such meeting in a decade. Her party advocates closer ties with Beijing and blocked a $40 billion defense budget from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. Beijing offers economic carrots but increasingly uses sticks. President Lai Ching-te visited Eswatini, one of Taiwan's few diplomatic allies, this weekend, but the trip was previously aborted after other states revoked overflight permits.
Implications for US Policy
A vibrant democracy deserves continued support. Trump's mixed messages might encourage China to believe it can unify Taiwan without force, but could also lead to escalatory steps by Beijing, raising the risk of missteps or accidents. The US would benefit from shoring up the status quo.
