Russian Oil Tanker's Cuban Arrival Fuels Speculation About Secret US Talks
The sanctioned Russian oil tanker Anatoly Kolodkin docked at Cuba's Matanzas oil terminal on March 31, unloading 700,000 barrels of crude in a move that has analysts scrutinizing potential progress in secret negotiations between Washington and Havana. This development comes despite President Donald Trump's earlier proclamation on social media that "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO!"
Contradictory Signals from Washington
Last week, Trump told reporters, "If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with it" - effectively waving the Russian ship through his own blockade. This apparent contradiction has left diplomats and observers parsing the administration's true intentions toward the Caribbean nation.
The tanker's arrival was followed on Thursday by news that Cuba was releasing 2,010 prisoners. While the government framed this as a humanitarian gesture for Holy Week, many observers quickly linked the two events as evidence that backchannel negotiations between the two countries are continuing.
Cuba's Deepening Economic Crisis
The US oil blockade has exacerbated Cuba's already struggling economy, pushing it further into crisis. Tourism has virtually collapsed after airlines from Canada, Russia, China, and France ceased operations, with Iberia set to leave at the end of May. Most petrol stations remain closed, and blackouts - long a problem - have become a daily occurrence.
An estimated 9.5 million Cubans remain on the island after approximately 2 million people left in the last five years. "Everything is collapsing - health, education, transport, everything," said one man outside a church in El Cobre, a famous pilgrimage site in eastern Cuba.
Analyzing the Diplomatic Dance
Initially, many diplomats credited the tanker's arrival to the worsening humanitarian crisis on the island. "One option is that it's a tactical move by the White House," said one ambassador. "So that as the humanitarian emergency worsens they can point to something specific they did - even though we know it's nothing in the grand scheme of things."
However, this explanation seemed out of character for Trump, whose humanitarian instincts have never been obvious. The same diplomat continued: "Or it could mean there is a bit of progress on negotiations. And this is a confidence-building measure." The subsequent prisoner release suggests the latter interpretation may be correct.
Reciprocal Gestures and Parallel Movements
William LeoGrande, professor of government at American University in Washington, noted: "It suggests that the two sides may be making reciprocal gestures of good will to advance the conversations they have been having," pointing to similar episodes in previous efforts at détente.
Meanwhile, another tanker with 200,000 barrels of Russian fuel - the Sea Horse - has been floating in the Atlantic. As the Anatoly Kolodkin arrived in Cuba, the Sea Horse moved to Venezuela, whose government has been keen to appease Trump's demands since the US abduction of Nicolás Maduro. This choreography suggested the oil shipments were a series of carrots being offered to the Cuban government.
The Rise of Private Enterprise in Cuba
While no amount of oil or pressure seems likely to encourage the Cuban regime to relinquish the power it has held since 1959, other developments suggest a more transactional way forward. Since they were first permitted by the government in 2021, Cuba has become home to more than 10,000 small to medium-sized private businesses, called Mipymes.
These businesses are apparent in small corner stores across the island and in the large container lorries running down the highways. The Mipymes have created a group of wealthy Cubans, many with links to the regime and Gaesa, the army's economic wing that controls large swathes of the economy.
Family Connections and Business Interests
Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, who has been at the front of negotiations with the US, is not only the grandson of former president Raúl Castro but also the son of the former head of Gaesa, Luis Rodríguez López-Calleja, who died in 2022.
This week, CNN interviewed another member of the Castro family, Fidel's grandson Sandro Castro. The 33-year-old influencer, often treated by Cubans with exasperation for his bling lifestyle, is also a successful businessman and importer according to diplomats. "There are many people here who want to do capitalism with sovereignty. I think the majority of Cubans want to be capitalist, not communist," he told CNN.
A Potential Path Forward
Normally, such a statement - let alone his subsequent opinion that current Cuban president Miguel Díaz-Canel "is not doing a good job" - would have earned the speaker a visit from state security. But this doesn't seem to be the case this time. Díaz-Canel's political defenestration has been touted by the US as one of the prices for negotiations to proceed.
This suggests a potential route forward where Cuba's economy would open up while senior members of the regime, including several Castros, retain power and influence. This would conform with Trump's statement that he wanted a "friendly" takeover of Cuba, mirror events in Venezuela and give him a diplomatic win as Iran continues to frustrate his hopes of an easy victory.
Economic Realities and Political Challenges
"At the moment, it is this smallish group who is making all the money," said another senior diplomat in Havana. "If the Americans are saying, 'you can keep your businesses, but you need to open the economy up to the US too,' then I can see that happening."
How this would sit with Marco Rubio, Trump's Cuban-American secretary of state, who has long expressed his commitment to unseating the Castros, remains to be seen. "I suspect the hardliners in Miami would have a hard time accepting anyone named Castro in a position of authority," said Pedro Freyre, a Miami attorney at the heart of the exile community.
More worryingly is where such a deal would leave the roughly 40% of Cubans who do not work for the private sector or receive money from relatives abroad. These people, often elderly, gave their lives to a revolution that promised to look after them from cradle to grave. The answer is probably nowhere good: they are now on the edge of starvation as the diplomatic dance continues.
