Israel's European Alliances Face Significant Challenges
Israel experienced a particularly difficult week in European diplomatic circles, marked by the loss of its strongest regional supporter when Viktor Orbán was removed from power in Hungary. Simultaneously, Italy suspended a crucial defense agreement with Israel, signaling a notable shift in European political alignments.
Political Changes Pave Way for Potential Sanctions
These political developments are expected to facilitate long-delayed European Union sanctions against violent settlers in the occupied West Bank. Furthermore, they contribute to increasing pressure for the EU to reconsider its comprehensive relationship with Israel regarding conflicts in Gaza and surrounding regions.
"Hungary's veto previously blocked the sanctions package targeting violent settlers," explained Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, director of the Israel-Europe relations program at the Mitvim think tank and lecturer at Hebrew University's European forum. "Once the new Tisza government assumes office, I anticipate the EU will prioritize this measure, which should be straightforward for Péter Magyar to approve."
EU officials anticipate reviving sanctions targeting a limited number of extremist settlers once Hungary's new government takes office next month. Ireland, Spain, and Slovenia—among Europe's most vocal supporters of Palestinian rights—have requested discussion of Israel's human rights obligations under its EU association agreement during upcoming foreign minister meetings.
Growing Calls for EU Action
In a joint letter to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, the foreign ministers of these three nations wrote: "The European Union can no longer remain on the sidelines," referencing what they described as "unbearable" conditions in Gaza and "escalating violence against Palestinians" in the West Bank.
Although sanctions against settlers are largely symbolic, targeting individuals with minimal European connections, their implementation could build momentum for more substantial measures. These might include suspending portions of the agreement governing EU-Israeli relations.
"Now discussions about leverage and pressure have returned to the forefront," noted Martin Konečný, director of the European Middle East Project in Brussels. "When initial steps fail to improve situations, pressure for subsequent actions intensifies rapidly."
Broad Support for Policy Changes
Last week, more than 390 former EU ministers, ambassadors, and senior officials urged the EU to suspend the EU-Israel association agreement either partially or entirely. Signatories included former EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell, former Swedish foreign minister Hans Blix, and former European Commission vice-president Margot Wallström.
A public petition advocating the same policy surpassed one million signatures from all twenty-seven member states, reportedly becoming the fastest-growing petition of its kind according to supporters.
Freezing the association agreement would require support from either Germany or Italy, needing approval from a qualified majority of at least fifteen member states representing sixty-five percent of the EU population. Previous attempts to halt trade provisions in response to Gaza's humanitarian crisis failed to reach this threshold last September.
Italy's Political Reorientation
Italy's political shift, demonstrated by suspending the defense cooperation agreement, increases the likelihood that renewed proposals might succeed. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni had been among Israel's closest European allies, frequently defying domestic public opinion in a nation that has hosted some of Europe's largest protests against Israeli military actions.
"For the first time since World War II, foreign policy has become central to Italian public concern," observed Lorenzo Castellani, a political historian at Rome's Luiss University. "This conflict directly impacts Italy and Europe geopolitically and economically."
While the defense memorandum suspension appears more symbolic than substantive—preserving existing defense deal frameworks—it serves as what one European diplomat described as a "clear warning" to Israel.
Changing European Perceptions
Israel has historically utilized close bilateral relationships to counter unfavorable EU policies through what Sion-Tzidkiyahu characterizes as a "divide and thwart" approach. The nation maintains support from traditional allies like Czech Republic's Andrej Babiš, and potential Israeli leadership changes might foster improved relations with new European counterparts.
However, maintaining political ties with Israel has become increasingly costly for European leaders. The regional conflict's impact has been amplified by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's alliance with U.S. President Donald Trump, whose frequent criticisms of European culture, values, and economy have strained transatlantic relations.
"The absence of meaningful measures against Israel, contrasted with extensive sanctions imposed on Russia, has raised concerns about double standards," stated Pasquale Ferrara, former senior Italian diplomat and scholar. "This risks undermining EU international credibility."
German-Israeli Relations Under Strain
Concerns about preserving European alliances contributed to an unusual public dispute last week when Israel's ambassador to Germany, Ron Prosor, denounced Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich for attacking German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Following Smotrich's comments referencing the Nazi regime, Prosor "unequivocally condemned" the remarks, accusing the minister of eroding Holocaust memory.
"When Israel depends on so few countries, with Germany as primary support following Meloni's distancing, protecting that relationship becomes essential," Sion-Tzidkiyahu commented.
Since the Gaza conflict began, German public opinion has diverged from government positions, with most voters now critical of Netanyahu's administration. However, Germany's historical responsibility for the Holocaust ensures it will never lead criticism against Israel.
Limited Israeli Awareness of European Dependence
The diplomatic shifts involving Orbán and Meloni received minimal attention in Israel, where foreign policy discussions focus primarily on conflicts with Iran and Lebanon, plus relations with the United States. Most Israelis underestimate how significantly European ties support their standard of living.
An August 2025 survey conducted by the Mitvim think tank revealed that two-thirds of Israelis view the EU as an adversary, with only fourteen percent considering it a friend.
"All Israelis recognize our security dependence on the United States, but few understand our economic dependence on the European Union," Sion-Tzidkiyahu emphasized. "Despite trade diversification efforts, the EU remains our largest export and import partner."
The European Union represents Israel's primary trading partner, most popular travel destination, and vital source of research funding through the multi-billion dollar Horizon program. Yet this economic influence has never translated into substantial political leverage within Israel, a dynamic that may be changing as European political landscapes evolve.
