BBC Weather experts have forecast a wet Notting Hill Carnival weekend, with rain expected for much of Sunday and Monday, including up to seven hours of showers on Bank Holiday Monday. The annual event, which has been running since 1966, typically attracts around two million people to West London.
Forecast details for Sunday and Monday
The latest long-range London forecast predicts rain for most of Sunday, August 30, when the family and children's day, J'Ouvert, and the children's parade take place. Conditions look even worse on Bank Holiday Monday, August 31, when the adults' day parade is held, with rain expected overnight and then regular showers from 2pm through to 9pm.
Thunder is also forecast from 7pm on Bank Holiday Monday. The BBC, like other meteorologists, operates on a probability scale, meaning the forecast is not an absolute guarantee of rain but indicates a decent chance so attendees can plan accordingly.
Other weather services agree
WX Charts also forecasts very wet weather, especially at 12pm on Sunday, August 30. The heaviness of rainfall is represented by shading, indicating about 0.1mm of rain will fall on the capital at that time.
MyLondon spoke to Jim Dale of the British Weather Services for his prediction. He also does not hold high hopes for a dry carnival, though he predicted temperatures up to 24C, describing it as 'not hot, but pleasant'. He said 'the likelihood is showers', leaving attendees to 'look over our shoulders' for rain.
Dale attributes the conditions to 'an area of low pressure coming in from the west'. Low pressure occurs because the air weighs less on the ground and is pushed upward, where it cools and condenses into clouds.
Met Office long-range forecast
The Met Office's long-range forecast is equally damning. It reads: "Becoming more unsettled and changeable from the south at the start of this period, as showers or longer spells of rain spread north across many parts of the UK. Some heavy bursts and thunderstorms are likely at times."
Here is the latest long-range weather forecast for London into September:
- Today (Friday, August 21) - High of 21C, sunny intervals and a gentle breeze.
- Saturday, August 22 - High of 22C, sunny intervals and a gentle breeze.
- Sunday, August 23 - High of 24C, sunny and light winds.
- Monday, August 24 - High of 23C, sunny intervals and a moderate breeze.
- Tuesday, August 25 - High of 25C, sunny intervals and a gentle breeze.
- Wednesday, August 26 - High of 26C, drizzle and a gentle breeze.
- Thursday, August 27 - High of 23C, light rain showers and a gentle breeze.
- Friday, August 28 - High of 21C, thundery showers and a moderate breeze.
- Saturday, August 29 - High of 22C, light rain showers and a gentle breeze.
- Sunday, August 30 - High of 22C, thundery showers and a gentle breeze.
- Bank Holiday Monday, August 31 - High of 22C, thundery showers and a gentle breeze.
- Tuesday, September 1 - High of 22C, drizzle and a gentle breeze.
- Wednesday, September 2 - High of 23C, light rain and a gentle breeze.
- Thursday, September 3 - High of 22C, light rain and a gentle breeze.
Attendees should prepare for wet conditions and potential thunderstorms, with the most significant rainfall expected during the adult parade on Monday afternoon and evening.
