The Australian government announced drastic changes to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) on Wednesday, potentially removing up to 160,000 participants by the end of the decade. However, many critical details remain unresolved, leaving participants and providers in limbo. Here is what we know so far and the key questions that need answers.
1. How is eligibility for the NDIS changing?
The fundamental shift in eligibility criteria moves from a diagnosis-based system to “standardised evidence-based assessments of a person’s functional capacity.” What this means in practice and who will no longer qualify remains unclear. Health and NDIS Minister Mark Butler stated that the scheme will return to its “original purpose” of supporting people with “significant and permanent disability.” Access will now depend on a “significant reduction in functional capacity that impacts day-to-day living,” removing the current diagnosis-based lists.
Martin Laverty, CEO of disability service provider Aruma and former NDIS board director, indicated that participants will not know their eligibility status for months. The National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA) must first define the parameters of functional capacity assessment, likely using a tool from the World Health Organization. Laverty urged patience during this process.
2. What support will be available for those removed from the NDIS?
Two state-administered programs will support individuals not eligible for the NDIS: the Thriving Kids program for children under nine with additional support needs, and Foundational Supports for others. Both were agreed upon at national cabinet meetings, but details on Foundational Supports remain scant. Ross Joyce, CEO of the Australian Federation of Disability Organisations, expressed concern about inconsistent service quality across states, warning of a potential “postcode lottery.” He emphasized the need for a consistent national model before anyone is removed from the NDIS.
3. Will there be a review mechanism for assessment decisions?
The government has not announced whether review mechanisms will be available for NDIS package decisions. On Thursday, Butler told Guardian Australia’s Australian Politics podcast that he does not hold a “firm view” and is open to community input. Currently, participants can request an NDIS review or appeal to the Administrative Review Tribunal. People with Disability Australia acting CEO Megan Spindler-Smith stressed that the system already makes errors “every day” and that the ability to challenge decisions is an essential safeguard.
4. When will the changes take effect?
Butler stated that eligibility changes will take effect on 1 January 2028, allowing 18 months to design the functional capacity assessment tool. Legislation for these changes will be introduced in May. The Thriving Kids program is set to begin rollout from 1 October 2026 and operate at scale from 1 January 2028. No timeline has been set for Foundational Supports, but it must align with the other changes.
5. How will the government crack down on NDIS fraud?
Butler announced two key anti-fraud measures: digital payments and risk-based registration. From 1 July, more providers in personal care, daily living supports, and closed settings will be required to register. A digital payment system will allow the NDIA to see evidence from every provider and ensure direct payment, reducing fraud opportunities.
