US-based prediction market websites are taking tens of thousands of dollars in bets on Australian elections and even specific words Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says in parliament, raising alarms among gambling harm advocates and the wagering lobby.
Regulators Monitoring the Trend
Australian financial and media regulators said they are monitoring the explosion in popularity of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which operate financial exchanges where users buy shares in contracts on event outcomes. While neither site is approved by Australian regulators and does not allow Australian users, experts say the sites can be easily accessed via VPNs.
Martin Thomas, CEO of the Alliance for Gambling Reform, expressed concern: "We're concerned about it. I think it will be part of this next wave [of gambling] to hit Australia, which will have a deep impact, and which regulators and policymakers will be way behind on."
How Prediction Markets Work
Prediction market sites allow users to buy shares in yes/no markets against other users on events ranging from sports to politics, pop culture, or even the weather. Traditional gambling platforms involve users placing bets against bookmakers, but gambling harm advocates say they operate similarly.
Kalshi and Polymarket are booming in popularity in the US, offering markets on basketball, football, tennis, combat sports, and also on events like "when will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?", "Bitcoin price at the end of 2026", "Highest temperature in LA on May 21", or "Will Drake's 'Iceman' debut at #1?"
Australian Markets Active
A Kalshi spokesperson said the platform has "no trading" in Australia, and its website states trading is prohibited for residents of more than 50 countries, including Australia. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) in 2025 mandated Australian ISPs block access to Polymarket after it was deemed to be offering gambling services without a valid licence.
Despite this, both sites host numerous Australian markets on sport, politics, culture, and the economy. Polymarket took nearly US$500,000 in trading on the winner of the Farrer byelection, while Kalshi took US$98,572. Kalshi is hosting markets including "Australia unemployment rate in May" and has US$16,000 traded on "Who will win the next Australian House election?" and US$8,400 on the Reserve Bank's cash rate decision in June.
Earlier this month, Kalshi hosted a market on which individual words Albanese would say during question time, with US$13,000 traded on contracts regarding whether he would say words like "Iran", "TAFE", "Trump", "tax cuts", or "healthcare". Polymarket is hosting markets on RBA decisions (US$28,000 on June's call) and whether Albanese would be "out as prime minister" by June or December (US$12,000 in trading).
Concerns from Industry Bodies
Kai Cantwell, CEO of Responsible Wagering Australia, said: "Australians are seeking out these products in large numbers and right now that demand is being met entirely by illegal offshore operators outside Australia's laws and protections. In their current form, these platforms create serious integrity risks because the markets can be easily manipulated, particularly when there is little transparency or oversight around how they operate."
Thomas said the Alliance for Gambling Reform is concerned about whether the government's looming wagering reforms will adequately address the new trend. "They're growing at an enormous rate in the US, and it doesn't take long for such things to come here. They seem to fall into a complete loophole, and for all our efforts to regulate online gambling, this would miss them."
Government and Regulator Responses
A government spokesperson said forthcoming reforms will extend ACMA's powers to block illegal gambling websites, broaden existing bans on advertising, and block transactions to prohibited gambling operators. A Kalshi spokesperson said the company is committed to operating "in a regulatory-first manner, including Australia" but has "no current plans" to seek approval to operate here. Regarding Australian users, the spokesperson said "we have no trading there" and noted they have an engineering team addressing such issues.
A spokesperson for the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) said bets placed on prediction markets are "high-risk and speculative and pose a significant risk to retail investors," noting no such provider holds an Australian market licence. "ASIC continues to observe the rise of prediction markets in the United States and is considering how local financial services laws may apply."
ACMA's investigation into Polymarket in 2025 resulted in a formal warning sent to the company last July. The regulator said it is monitoring prediction market services but hasn't undertaken formal investigations into other operators at this stage. ACMA noted Kalshi has geoblocked users in Australia but added that some people may attempt to circumvent geo-blocking using VPNs. A Polymarket spokesperson declined to comment.
