The deadlocked war in Iran is about to enter its fourth month, and comparisons with previous US quagmires in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam are now common. Initially, warnings of another "forever war" seemed exaggerated, but no longer. The negative international humanitarian, economic, and geopolitical fallout from this fiasco is set to prove more permanently damaging globally than any of those past US-made disasters.
Who Will Stop Trump?
An urgent question arises: who will stop Donald Trump? Having started something he cannot finish, the US president, egged on by Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu, has boxed himself into a corner. Either he resumes the illegal bombing of Iran on an even bigger scale, threatening war crimes to force surrender, or he accepts a negotiated compromise that falls short of his initial aims, including eliminating Iran's nuclear programme, and leaves a more hardline regime in power.
Neither choice is attractive for Trump. He and his secretary of war, Pete Hegseth, should know that bombing cannot break Iran's defiance. Seventy percent of Iran's missile stockpile reportedly remains intact. Trump's threats to break the ceasefire, like his aborted Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz, are opposed by Gulf states, Washington's allies (except Israel), and most US voters.
The Stakes of a Peace Deal
A peace deal broadly in line with Barack Obama's 2015 nuclear pact, which Trump wrecked, would be counted an abject failure for Trump. It would represent a landmark US strategic defeat with implications for the global contest with China and Russia. Any deal that leaves Iran charging transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz would be humiliating. Trump's approval ratings have collapsed to about 37%, and the standoff is causing immense harm worldwide.
Global Impact
For the poorest countries, ending the war is existential. Staple prices have doubled in Somalia, and fertiliser shortages could ruin the growing season. The World Food Programme predicts an additional 45 million people will face acute hunger if the war continues. Developed countries suffer from spiralling energy, fuel, and food prices. The IMF cut its global growth forecast to 3.1% in 2026, blaming the "shadow of war." Ordinary people everywhere are paying a Trump war tax.
Trump's war is upending the geopolitical balance. The US is at odds with allies like Germany, France, and Britain. Gulf states question the US alliance. Russia benefits from reduced sanctions on its oil exports, while Ukraine suffers. China's global ascendancy is confirmed as Trump fails to secure its help on Iran.
How to Stop Trump
An ever-expanding catastrophe is not inevitable. Radical, concerted action is required. Western governments wield most leverage. Britain should exploit its "special relationship" with the US for the general good. France's President Macron urges "middle powers" like Canada, India, Brazil, and Japan to join a "coalition of independence." The EU, African Union, G20, and Brics should adopt a tougher approach, including downgrading ties, punitive sanctions, and import tariffs. The upcoming EU summit and G7 summit in France are moments for leaders to bring Trump to heel.
The UN Security Council is another platform for pressure. If France and the UK join China and Russia in demanding an immediate end to hostilities, it may give Washington pause. European Nato members could suspend non-Ukraine military cooperation. US bases in Europe could face restrictions. Diplomatic relations could be downgraded, and cultural boycotts considered.
Yet the most direct way to stop Trump remains pressure from Americans themselves. Most deplore the war and endure cost-of-living rises. Action in Congress to stop this constitutionally unauthorised war must be redoubled. In November's midterm elections, Trump and his Republican enablers must be punished severely.
The disease of Trump and Trumpism risks becoming a global pandemic. His Iran war is a symptom. Trump must be made to understand that his deficit-funded, ill-led military does not make him boss of the world. A bold, radical, and imaginative collective intervention by the US's friends is urgently required. By all legitimate means, Trump must be stopped.
