Donald Trump has again claimed that the US has "total control over the Strait of Hormuz," adding that Iran's leadership is hobbled by infighting. However, the president's assertion appears questionable following the seizure of two container ships by Iranian commandos and a US report warning that clearing mines from the strait could take six months.
Iranian Seizures and US Response
Iran's Revolutionary Guards released footage showing naval forces boarding a container ship. The military operation occurred hours after Iran seized two container ships, with both sides imposing competing blockades on the strait, keeping global oil prices at about $100 a barrel. While US forces have stopped ships leaving Iranian ports, they have not demonstrated the capacity to open the strait to vessels from allied Gulf states.
Mine Clearance Challenges
The impact of the dual blockades is compounded by sea mines in the strait. The Pentagon briefed Congress that clearing suspected mines could take up to six months. Approximately 20 mines are thought to have been placed, some by small boats and others remotely, making them harder to locate. A Pentagon spokesperson described the report as "inaccurate" but did not provide specific objections.
Trump stated on Truth Social that US minesweepers are working "at a tripled up level" and ordered the navy "to shoot and kill" any boat mining the waterway. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, said the world faces "the biggest energy security threat in history."
Ceasefire Extension and Iran Talks
Trump told reporters that Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend a ceasefire with Hezbollah by three weeks. Hezbollah has not participated in talks, and fighting has continued. When asked how long he would wait for a peace deal with Iran, Trump replied, "Don't rush me." He claimed Iran's navy, air force, and anti-aircraft capabilities are largely destroyed. Iran has refused to attend peace talks in Pakistan, a snub Trump attributed to a lack of consensus in Tehran.
Iranian Leadership and IRGC Influence
Trump agreed to an "indefinite" ceasefire extension and claimed the US has firm control over the Strait of Hormuz. He said Iran is struggling to determine its leader, with a rift between hardliners and moderates. Supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, seriously wounded in an Israeli attack, remains "mentally sharp" according to Iranian officials, but his physical recovery is ongoing. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appears to have greater influence in a collective leadership, making it more hawkish.
The IRGC naval command stated that the two detained ships—the Greek-owned Epaminondas and the Panamanian-flagged MSC Francesca—endangered maritime security by operating without permits and tampering with navigation systems. Reports suggest the container ships were part of a convoy seeking to exit the strait after being trapped in the Gulf.
Propaganda War and Economic Impact
Iran published footage of commandos boarding the Francesca, while the US released footage of special forces descending on a stateless oil tanker. The closure of the strait strains the Iranian economy but also threatens Trump politically through higher petrol prices and inflation ahead of US midterm elections.
