On Wednesday, Israeli legislators took the first steps towards dissolving parliament and calling fresh nationwide elections. Leading leftwing Knesset member Yair Golan hailed it "the beginning of the end of the worst government in Israel's history." Benjamin Netanyahu has spent 20 of the last 30 years as Israel's prime minister, the last four of which have seen him helm a far-right coalition.
Under the incumbent government, settlement building in the illegally occupied West Bank has accelerated, while many international humanitarian NGOs have been banned from the Palestinian territories. Following Hamas's killing of 1,200 Israelis on 7 October 2023, Netanyahu has orchestrated a campaign of violence in Gaza, killing or injuring more than 10% of the population, and flattening the strip in what a UN commission has declared a genocide. Netanyahu remains on trial for three counts of corruption.
Much has changed since Israeli voters last went to the polls. Public support for Israel in both western Europe and the US is at its lowest ever level. Israeli public opinion, meanwhile, has shifted further right.
For today's First Edition, I spoke to Dahlia Scheindlin, a Tel Aviv-based political consultant and pollster, who has worked on nine Israeli election campaigns, about what is at stake and whether this vote may spell the end for Netanyahu.
A Thorny, Unsolved Question Cracks the Coalition
In power since 2022, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud is the largest parliamentary party. That said, Scheindlin explains, no one expected his coalition government to last this long. "He is backed by two ultra-nationalist religious fundamentalist parties, and two ultra-orthodox religious fundamentalist parties." Collectively, they hold 64 seats. For years, Scheindlin continues, Netanyahu's coalition government has been plagued by the same thorny question: "Can it pass a law to guarantee the continued exemption of most ultra-orthodox young men from military service?" This has long been divisive in Israeli society, and yet, the coalition has trudged along, without resolving it. To Netanyahu's coalition partners, this exemption law is of paramount importance. "It has seen many governments collapse. This government repeatedly reached crisis point over it," says Scheindlin. On Wednesday, their coalition finally cracked. "Netanyahu's partners said we don't trust this government to pass that legislation any more." A vote to dissolve parliament received the backing of 110 out of 120 lawmakers. A three-month pre-election run-up period is required by law. Late August is the earliest possible polling day, with a cut-off date of 27 October.
No Guaranteed Victory
Netanyahu remains the most popular potential PM – having topped the polls consistently since August 2024 – but that's no guarantee of electoral victory. "He is coming in strongest in almost all surveys," says Scheindlin, "although with slight variations lately." Made up of 120 seats, the Knesset is elected every four years through nationwide proportional representation. "Usually 30 to 40 parties compete," Scheindlin says, "cross the 3.25% vote share threshold and you enter parliament." No party in Israel's history has won a majority of 61+ seats – so Netanyahu, like all those before him, relies on fragile coalitions. "In all polling from the last two years," says Scheindlin, "his coalition has been getting between 49 and 56 seats." If public opinion remains as is, Netanyahu will fail to secure another majority.
Scheindlin also points out the remaining opposition parties which outnumber Netanyahu's bloc aren't necessarily more progressive. "Polling between 64 and 71 seats, these are dominated by what Israelis perceive to be moderate right, secular right, or semi-religious anti-Netanyahu parties." While Likud has remained steady at the top of opinion polls, the second-ranked party has shifted regularly. "It is always a party that Israelis perceive as centre or moderate right. In the six months before and after 7 October, it was the party led by [former senior minister] Benny Gantz." Fortunes change fast. "That party is now polling way below the 3.25% threshold."
Shifting Alliances
The ever-changing political landscape makes allegiances fluid and hard to follow. Gantz has now been usurped to second place by former prime minister Naftali Bennett, though his new party – Together (Israel) – is not currently in the Knesset. "Israelis view it as the moderate rightwing party, though Bennett came from the far right," says Scheindlin. Bennett has achieved this feat by joining forces with once political rival, Yair Lapid. A former PM, Lapid's past political persona was of a centrist, secular liberal. "Israelis perceive Lapid to be leftwing because he was the last PM to publicly support a two state solution, in September 2022. He doesn't say that any more," says Scheindlin. On the contrary, at the launch of their joint venture, Bennett declared: "We will safeguard the lands of our country and will not hand over a single centimetre to the enemy." Lapid stood on stage with him.
In some polls, Together (Israel) are one seat ahead of Netanyahu, in most they're a small number of seats behind. There are plenty of challengers, too. Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot was polling at six seats just a few months ago. That's 13-15 now. "He is bereaved, having lost his son and his nephew in the Gaza war. Avigdor Lieberman is also a longtime challenger to Netanyahu, from the secular, nationalist right. He gets 10 seats in most surveys." Today, there's a gap in the (relative) centre, after Yair Lapid joined forces with Naftali Bennett. "Then you have the Democrats, a merger of two former leftwing parties. Most Israelis view them as very leftwing; firm leftwingers view them as centrist." With policies focused on affordable housing, trade unions and public services, they support a two state solution and oppose Israel's occupation of the West Bank. The Democrats are polling about 10 seats.
"The two major Arab parties currently have 10 seats, and are still trying to decide their constellation. Will they merge? Stay separate? Form a new party? Jewish-Arab party, maybe? All of this is still in play," explains Scheindlin.
A Race Wide Open
While these opposition parties consistently garner a majority of seats, a path to power remains almost inconceivable. "The leaders from these opposition parties tell the public repeatedly they will not form a government which includes Arab parties," Scheindlin says. "If they dropped this taboo, of course they would have a majority. But here is the catch, to announce that, the Zionist parties worry they would haemorrhage support to the further-right Netanyahu bloc, harming their chances." As such, Netanyahu may well cling on to power. "Many of his supporters believe in a conspiracy: that army chiefs and intelligence knew of [Hamas's 7 October] plans, and let it happen, to embarrass the PM and bring him down. The belief in that conspiracy among coalition voters is growing over time," says Scheindlin. "His polling, if anything, is getting a tiny bit better. His personal ratings are not at all bad. He has 45% of people who are always with him," says Scheindlin, adding: "In the last election, his supporting parties combined won 48.3%. He doesn't need to win a huge number of voters back."
And polls do show 17-20% of Israelis remain undecided. "If the numbers remain as they are now, very small percentages could tip the elections. Let's put it this way," says Scheindlin. "This race is simultaneously extremely close and wide open."
The End of Netanyahu?
Should Netanyahu's majority fade, progressive parties would be in the distinct minority. But while the country would – in Scheindlin's prediction – likely still be led by firm right-wingers, there would probably be some domestic change: "A less populist style, less divisive rhetoric, less targeting of civilian institutions. Maybe they would try to revive damaged diplomatic relations. They would like to advance the draft for the ultra-orthodox. Attacks on the Israeli judiciary may reduce." Resisted by Netanyahu, an independent inquiry into what happened on 7 October would "almost certainly be established … That will be a huge focus on the campaign."
"But least likely to change," Scheindlin continues, "is policy towards Palestinians." She points to the role of Naftali Bennett – who would be at the heart of any new government and had a leading role in the Judea and Samaria Settlement Council before going into politics, an umbrella organisation for Israeli settlements in the illegally occupied West Bank. "He is dead set against a Palestinian state," says Scheindlin. "This different government might say we need to start ending wars, but not through anything that looks like concessions." The aim, says Scheindlin, would be "to turn down the volume on the Palestinian issue to avoid international pressure. In many ways, it would be window dressing." This is more than an educated guess, Scheindlin says: it's what happened when current opposition parties governed in 2021/22.
Whichever outcome materialises, Scheindlin suggests, "the underlying problems as they relate to the Palestinians: occupation, self-determination, a two-state solution? I have a hard time seeing that changing." Still, she accepts, the unexpected might just happen. "Maybe a government with the range of ideologies currently found in the opposition parties – under sustained international pressure from multiple sides – could just find itself in the perfect storm for change."
