Satellite images have revealed that China is building dozens of launch pads for nuclear missiles in the Xinjiang autonomous province, home to the Uyghur Muslim community. More than 80 pads have already been constructed in the middle of the desert over the past six years, within 150 kilometers of the Hami nuclear silo fields, which house China's longest-range missiles. The pads are linked to these silos by airfields and railheads.
Expansive Network of Military Infrastructure
At the heart of this sprawling network, covering thousands of square kilometers, are octagon structures that contain housing for personnel and large military vehicles. Experts believe the pads could be used to deploy mobile air-defense missiles, electronic warfare nodes, or even mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) units. This development represents a significant enhancement of China's strategic nuclear deterrent.
Expert Analysis
Alexander Neill, a fellow at Hawaii's Pacific Forum think tank, described the latest development as a 'very considerable enhancement and diversification of China's strategic nuclear deterrent.' He noted that China's investment in hardened infrastructure is designed to protect and enforce its nuclear forces.
China's nuclear stockpile is far smaller than those of Russia and the United States, the world's two largest nuclear powers. Both rely on their relative isolation and sheer numbers of silos to act as a deterrent. However, according to Pentagon reports, China is expanding its nuclear capability faster than any other nation. Despite a recent slowdown in production, China is on track to reach 1,000 warheads by 2030.
Early Warning Capabilities
China has also been boosting its early warning capability, underpinned by Huoyan-1 satellites. These satellites can detect an incoming ICBM within 90 seconds of its launch and alert a command center within three minutes, giving China time to fire its own weapons before being hit. This capability is crucial for maintaining a credible deterrent.
Implications for Taiwan Policy
Despite China's 'no first use' policy, diplomats believe it cannot be ruled out that Beijing would use nuclear coercion to deter any possible foreign intervention in Taiwan. Earlier this month, Donald Trump left the Chinese capital with warnings from President Xi Jinping that disagreements over Taiwan could lead both countries to a 'dangerous place.'
Hans Kristensen, director of the Federation of American Scientists' Nuclear Information Project, said 'it is hard to rule anything out' when considering how Beijing could deploy its enlarged military capability. He added that the development in Xinjiang province was an 'extraordinary effort,' stating, 'I've never seen anything quite like it.'
