The Conservatives must look beyond Westminster experience and choose a candidate with a fresh political profile and credible work on crime and policing to stand a realistic chance of winning the 2028 London mayoralty, new research by Opinium has concluded.
The polling, carried out in July with 2,021 adults across the capital, shows Labour would still secure City Hall if the election were held now. But it identifies a clear route for a Conservative victory if the party selects the right contender.
Previous government experience is a drag
Londoners appear to view time spent in the last Conservative government as a negative. The survey found 27 per cent of respondents said a candidate who had served in the previous administration would make them less likely to back the Tories, compared with 23 per cent who saw it positively.
By contrast, a candidate with no ministerial background would make 28 per cent of voters more likely to choose the party, while only 20 per cent said it would put them off.
Opinium warned, however, that simply being untouched by the last government is not decisive. "Association with the previous administration is helpful, but is unlikely to be enough on its own to transform a candidate's electoral prospects," the pollster said.
Crime and policing credentials matter most
The poll indicates that crime and policing is among the most important issues Londoners weigh when choosing a Mayor – and is also the area where voters believe the Greater London Authority can have the greatest influence.
A majority of voters said they would be more likely to support a candidate who had prior experience in tackling crime and policing. The analysis concluded that the most attractive electoral proposition is someone with a genuinely different profile.
"Taken together, these findings suggest that the strongest electoral proposition is not simply someone who wasn't part of the last Conservative government, but someone who offers a genuinely different profile," the report said.
"A candidate with credible experience on crime and policing, a successful career outside Westminster and the ability to present themselves as a fresh face appears substantially more compelling than one whose principal selling point is simply not having served in the previous administration."
Londoners' priorities for the next Mayor
When asked about policing and crime, the top three priorities for the next Mayor were more police officers on the streets, tougher sentences for offenders and tackling the root causes of crime.
On housing, the most cited goals were bringing empty homes back into use, building more homes overall and making renting more affordable. On transport, voters favoured keeping fares as low as possible, making the network more reliable and fixing potholes on the capital's roads.
A four-way fight under the supplementary vote
The 2028 election will revert to the supplementary vote system, in which voters rank a first and second choice and two rounds of counting are held. This changes the arithmetic from the straightforward Labour-Conservative battles seen since 2008.
Initial polling suggests Labour would take 32 per cent of first-choice votes, with the Greens on 18 per cent and the Conservatives and Reform UK tied on 17 per cent each. That points to a genuinely four-way race for City Hall.
However, one in five Labour voters said they would consider supporting a Conservative candidate, meaning the final result could hinge on the Tory selection.
Who might run?
Speculation over the Conservative nomination has centred on former Cabinet Minister James Cleverly, who served in the last government, and former Olympic athlete Lord Sebastian Coe. A party source insisted that the poll supports the need for renewal.
"Without mentioning names, this poll tested different candidate profiles and found that Londoners are more drawn to a Conservative candidate combining policing experience, business credentials and a fresh profile than one defined by previous Westminster experience," the source said.
The source added that it was "the latest evidence in support of Kemi Badenoch's argument that the Conservative Party must renew itself by selecting candidates capable of rebuilding trust."
The Tories have not won a London mayoral election since Boris Johnson stepped down, with Zac Goldsmith, Shaun Bailey and Susan Hall all failing to beat Sir Sadiq Khan, who has won comfortably three times. Suggestions that Khan may not seek a fourth term have added further uncertainty to the race. A Conservative Party spokesman said a candidate would be selected in due course.
