Donald Trump is in China for a high-stakes summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, marking the first US presidential state visit in nearly a decade. Amid geopolitical upheaval and a rocky superpower relationship, Iran, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, trade, and fentanyl are expected to dominate discussions.
1. Iran War
Trump wants China to pressure Tehran into peace talks and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Beijing has publicly watched the US struggle, but with half of China's crude oil imports passing through the strait, Xi seeks its unblocking. China fears export losses from a global recession due to an oil crisis. The US recently sanctioned Chinese firms accused of aiding Iranian oil shipments and supplying satellite imagery for military operations, claims Beijing denies. Iran's foreign minister visited Beijing last week.
2. Taiwan
Beijing aims to push the US on Taiwan. Trump is prepared to discuss arms sales to the island, which China claims as a breakaway territory. In December, Trump authorized an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan, the largest ever, but no shipments have occurred. Xi may seek a US statement "opposing" Taiwan's independence rather than "not supporting" it. Taiwan watches closely, especially after China's foreign minister urged the US to "make the right choices." Former US official John Kirby stressed the need for precise language given the high stakes.
3. Artificial Intelligence
The US and China are locked in an AI race resembling a technological cold war. In April, the White House accused China of stealing AI intellectual property, which Beijing denied. China is frustrated by US reluctance to allow Nvidia to export its most powerful chips. In January, the White House permitted exports of the second most powerful chip, the H200, but no shipments have been sent. Analysts hope Trump and Xi will discuss non-binding AI guidelines on misuse and safety, critical amid AI weaponry adoption.
4. US-China Trade
Trump has threatened China with tariffs above 140%, but China retaliated by blocking rare earth mineral exports. Trump backed down as US weapons arsenal depleted in the Iran war relies on China-dominated supply chains. China is expected to announce purchases of Boeing airplanes, American agriculture, and energy. In return, Beijing wants eased curbs on advanced semiconductor exports and reduced investment barriers, proposing a Board of Investment to match the Board of Trade.
5. Fentanyl
Fentanyl is a key item on Trump's agenda, as the US accuses Chinese businesses of supplying chemical precursors to Mexican cartels. Trump knows pressing China on fentanyl appeals to his base. However, he lost leverage when China defied tariff threats. In March, the US and China clashed over fentanyl at a UN meeting. China wants removal from the US list of major drug transit or producing countries, due for update in September.
