Roberto Vannacci's far-right Futuro Nazionale party has risen to about 8% in polls since its launch in February, surpassing the League and eclipsing Forza Italia, according to recent surveys. This rise poses a significant dilemma for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as she celebrates her government becoming the longest-running in Italy since the second world war.
Celebrations in Bari mark a historic milestone
In the port area of Bari, capital of Puglia, where Meloni hosted the G7 in 2024 and spends her summer holiday, preparations are underway for a festival-style showcase of her rightwing administration. On Friday, food trucks, water stations, and traditional Puglian light shows will entertain an expected crowd of 10,000 people bussed in from across Italy. Militants from the youth wing of Meloni's Brothers of Italy party have distributed flyers in squares and beaches for days, wearing T-shirts with the slogan: "Il Governo più stabile, l'Italia più forte" (the most stable government, the strongest Italy).
Meloni, who was booed at the Mediterranean Games opening ceremony in Taranto weeks ago, will address the audience in the evening, flanked by coalition allies Matteo Salvini (League) and Antonio Tajani (Forza Italia). "This moment will be written in the history books," said Michele Picaro, Brothers of Italy MEP and former Bari councillor. "We are the longest government in the history of the Italian Republic and this must be celebrated."
Vannacci's rapid ascent shakes the political landscape
Beneath the triumph, the outlook for Meloni is less settled. Brothers of Italy remains the country's biggest party, but the emergence of Vannacci, a former army general, has shifted the landscape. Since February, his party Futuro Nazionale has risen to about 8% in polls, surpassing the League months ago and eclipsing Forza Italia this week. Vannacci first gained public attention in 2023 after self-publishing a book filled with racism, homophobia, Islamophobia, and antisemitism. The backlash cost him his army job but propelled him to bestseller lists. In 2024, he was elected as an MEP for the League, later leaving to set up his own party.
His policies are extreme. Futuro Nazionale's manifesto states "abortion is not a right" and calls for gay people to be banned from TV between 6am and 11pm to protect children from "homosexualist" content. It proposes military education in high schools and a "remigration" plan to remove irregular immigrants and foreign nationals who commit crimes. On foreign policy, Vannacci has campaigned to stop weapons and financial aid to Ukraine, saying he would choose Putin over Zelenskyy. In July, he organised a "Futuristic Triathlon" in Sanremo, echoing fascist aesthetics.
Meloni's dilemma: moderate governance vs. far-right vacuum
Vannacci's party has attracted defectors from the three main ruling coalition parties and is courting disillusioned Five Star Movement voters. Meloni, whose party has neofascist roots, has governed more moderately than expected, cultivating a pragmatic, pro-Ukraine image abroad while using hardline rhetoric domestically. This has left a vacuum on the far-right that Vannacci exploits. "This government has wasted the huge occasion that stability gave them," said Lia Quartapelle, an MP with the Democratic party. "None of the core issues have been addressed – we have stagnant productivity and growth, salaries that have lagged behind for many years and an education system that is not up to the pace."
Giulia Pastorella, an MP for Azione, said: "Meloni hasn't really done much at home but has been very present abroad. The Italian electorate is tired of talking about foreign policy and would rather discuss national politics – this is precisely what Vannacci has understood." Picaro dismissed poll concerns: "This is a government that is more used to working than looking at percentages," citing lower unemployment, reduced irregular immigration, tax cuts for the self-employed, and an initiative in the south.
What lies ahead for Italy's coalition
With a possible election as early as April, Meloni has pivoted to hardline rhetoric, notably in response to migrant influx from Morocco into Ceuta. She is pushing a contentious electoral law giving a majority bonus to alliances winning more than 42% of the vote, which critics say aims to boost her group's chances. If Vannacci strengthens, Meloni might accommodate him, risking moderate supporters, or clinch a post-election pact, leading to a shift to the extreme right. Alessandro Cattaneo, Forza Italia MP, believes it won't come to that: "We in Forza Italia believe that Vannacci is too far removed from our political culture. It would not be possible to govern with him … the coalition needs to continue to work seriously for the remainder of this administration and explain better to people what we have done. The best antidote to the extreme right is to show our seriousness."
