The final pieces are falling into place for one of the most consequential by-elections in modern British history. Next month, the people of Makerfield – a constituency covering the area south of Wigan in Greater Manchester – will choose who they want to be their new MP. The contest was triggered by the resignation of Josh Simons, who explicitly stated he wanted to give Andy Burnham an opportunity to win a seat in the Commons and possibly launch a leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer.
This afternoon, it was confirmed that the Mayor of Greater Manchester will indeed be running as the Labour candidate. We also now know the identity of the man likely to be his biggest threat: Robert Kenyon, a local plumber who is running for the second time as the candidate for Reform UK. Both men have emphasised their community credentials. Burnham grew up a 20-minute drive away in the town of Culcheth, while Kenyon says he was born and bred within the constituency boundaries.
What to Know About Makerfield
The first thing is that ‘Makerfield’ is not a town, and never has been. It is an area containing several settlements large and small – including a few that incorporate the name, such as Ashton-in-Makerfield and Ince-in-Makerfield. If you were to draw a line on a map connecting Manchester and Liverpool city centres, Makerfield would be almost exactly in the middle and a little to the north.
At the time of the last general election, just over 100,000 people lived in the constituency and they were almost 97% white. The child poverty rate was more than 5% lower than that for the broader north-west of England, but house prices were also lower than the average for the region. Like many other places in this part of England, Makerfield was once dominated by two industries: cotton and especially coal. Burnham has focused heavily on the impact of deindustrialisation in the area, saying Margaret Thatcher’s government in the 1980s drained away ‘economic, social and political power’.
Makerfield’s Political History
This is a seat with strong, historic links to the Labour Party. In fact, its residents voted Labour at the first opportunity in 1906, when the constituency was called Ince and the party was called the Labour Representation Committee. They continued voting Labour until 1983, when the constituency’s boundaries and name were changed. From then on, it was Makerfield rather than Ince that kept choosing Labour MPs.
There was never much of a threat to the party’s dominance until 2019, when Boris Johnson’s Conservatives came within 5,000 votes of taking the seat. This counted as a close call. In summer 2024, it was Reform UK that posed a threat to new Labour candidate Josh Simons. More people voted for Nigel Farage’s party in Makerfield than any other seat won by Labour.
As Sir Keir Starmer’s government has grown ever more unpopular, it has looked more likely that Reform would bag the constituency at the next election. But Andy Burnham’s candidacy changes the calculations. Not only is he a popular mayor, he is also positioning himself in opposition to the Prime Minister. His unspoken message to voters is: ‘Vote for me, and you’ll make sure Starmer is replaced by a strong northern voice.’
For Robert Kenyon and Reform, the spoils of victory are irresistible – demonstrating they can beat Labour’s most popular figure in the country on his doorstep, while also keeping an unpopular PM in power. They might be buoyed by the fact Makerfield voted 65% leave in the Brexit referendum, which took place almost exactly ten years before the constituency will go to the polls in June.
Luke Tryl, the boss of pollster More in Common, says attitudes have shifted to the extent it would likely now narrowly vote to remain. However, the landscape that led to that high percentage – such as concern over levels of immigration – remains. He said: ‘Andy Burnham definitely wants it to be Andy Burnham versus Reform, rather than Labour versus Reform. If it’s Labour versus Reform, Reform win. If it’s Andy Burnham versus Reform, it’s much closer.’
