Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's premiership hung by a thread on Tuesday as he refused to leave Downing Street despite multiple ministerial resignations and a growing number of backbenchers calling for his removal. In a chaotic day of political warfare and Labour infighting, Starmer resisted being dragged out of Number 10 as he challenged Cabinet ministers and a deeply divided set of backbenchers to trigger a formal leadership contest against him if they had the numbers to do so.
Starmer's Defiance
His opening statement to Cabinet laid down the gauntlet to potential challengers, telling senior ministers that the “process for challenging a leader” had “not been triggered” and adding that the “country expects us to get on with governing”. Ahead of the King’s Speech today, Starmer said the country stood at a “pivotal moment”, warning against the risk of returning to “the chaos and instability of the past”.
But as the hours passed on Tuesday, more and more Labour MPs called on Starmer to go as the tally approached 90, around a quarter of the party. A separate letter signed by over 100 MPs, mainly backbenchers, said Labour should stick with Starmer and avoid a lengthy leadership contest. By 5pm, four ministers had also resigned, including former key ally Jess Phillips and health minister Zubir Ahmed, an ally of leadership rival Wes Streeting.
Cabinet Support
Cabinet ministers Liz Kendall, Steve Reed, and Peter Kyle jumped to the defence of the Prime Minister in impromptu interviews with broadcasters, stressing that Starmer could survive and turn around electoral fortunes after nearly 1,500 Labour councillors were lost last week. Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy said Starmer has his “full support” and urged Labour colleagues to step back and “take a breath”.
Challengers Make Moves
Political turmoil in Westminster added to the sting of stalled peace negotiations between the US and Iran, with 30-year gilt yields jumping to 5.8 per cent on Tuesday, the highest level since 1998, as traders and investors priced in the chaos. All eyes in Westminster and the City turned to Streeting and Andy Burnham’s movements. On Tuesday morning, City AM exclusively revealed that Burnham was on a train heading for London, with reports later suggesting that he was gathering the support of MPs and senior government figures for a return to Westminster and a leadership bid.
His allies also became more transparent about their desire for the Manchester mayor to return to Westminster. Miatta Fahnbulleh, the first minister to resign on Tuesday, said she backed Burnham’s comeback. Paula Barker, the Labour member for Liverpool Wavertree, said the popular Labour figure was a “fantastic politician” and said “the markets will have to fall into line” with his policies.
Economic Concerns
Top economists raised the alarm on the prospect of Burnham being made Prime Minister or Angela Rayner spearheading economic policy. Oxford Economics researchers said Burnham’s path to Downing Street would lead to “persisting uncertainty” for gilts as he would first have to win a by-election, then persuade markets that he would be fiscally responsible after having criticised the government for being “in hock to the bond markets”. Capital Economics deputy chief UK economist Ruth Gregory said: “A more negative market reaction is likely if Burnham or [Angela] Rayner are Starmer’s replacement, given they are probably perceived by investors to be more inclined to increase borrowing than Streeting.” Top City analyst Jordan Rochester of Mizuho said that an economics policy report by Tribune, a left-wing group of Labour MPs, urging less “caution” from the Treasury on fiscal policy would have also raised eyebrows across trading floors.
King's Speech Looms
The King’s Speech could prove to be particularly awkward both for King Charles and Starmer given feverish speculation surrounding the Prime Minister’s future. Bills on EU relations, energy infrastructure, and NHS reforms will be included in a statement that Starmer hopes will calm restless backbenchers but which may yet be overtaken by events.
