The Liberal Party celebrated its byelection victory in Nepean on Saturday night, with leader Jess Wilson at the center of the campaign. However, the result masks significant challenges ahead of the November state election.
Campaign Presence and Result
Wilson was a constant presence throughout the campaign, appearing on corflutes, flyers, and at pre-poll voting stations where she spent hours handing out how-to-vote cards. The Liberal candidate, Anthony Marsh, secured a comfortable win with 38.5% of the primary vote, down 9.6% from the previous election. On a two-candidate-preferred count against independent Tracee Hutchison, Marsh achieved 63.5%.
One Nation's Darren Hercus finished second with 24.7%, while Hutchison polled 21.3% and the Greens 9.3%. The result underscores the rise of minor parties and independents in the electorate.
Factors Behind the Win
Liberal MPs credited Wilson's personal appeal, which has made her more popular than Labor Premier Jacinta Allan in polls. The campaign focused on local issues such as upgrading Rosebud Hospital, road conditions, and crime, while also running a strong message against One Nation, arguing that a vote for the minor party would help Labor.
Wilson's social media video on the first day of early voting stressed that the only way to remove the Labor government in November was to vote Liberal. This message resonated with many voters.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the win, Wilson acknowledged that the Liberal Party still needs to win 16 seats to form government in November, requiring a statewide swing of 7-8%. This is a significant challenge, especially with One Nation emerging as a strong competitor.
RedBridge pollster Kos Samaras warned that the Liberals should not be complacent, noting that Nepean is a wealthy, asset-rich electorate where the party already held the seat. The primary vote swing against the Liberal candidate, despite the win, highlights the difficulty of achieving the necessary statewide swing.
One Nation's performance was particularly strong in economically stressed areas within the electorate, such as Rosebud and Tootgarook, where it outpolled the Liberals. This trend could threaten both major parties in outer-suburban and regional seats.
Expert Analysis
Benjamin Moffit, a Monash University expert on populism, estimated that 10-15% of former Labor voters defected to One Nation, indicating that the South Australian election result was not a fluke. He warned that One Nation could be competitive in lower house seats and sweep at least one seat in every region in the upper house.
Samaras agreed, stating that both major parties will struggle to fend off One Nation in seats with many blue-collar workers and people under financial stress. This includes seats held by both Labor and the Liberals, as well as regional seats held by the Nationals.
Wilson has refused to rule out a preference deal with One Nation, leaving the door open for further negotiations.
