A sweeping international poll indicates that a year into Donald Trump's return to the White House, his "Make America Great Again" agenda is perceived by much of the world as inadvertently accelerating the rise of China on the global stage.
A World View: China's Ascendancy and American Retreat
The exclusive survey, conducted for the influential European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank, canvassed nearly 26,000 respondents across 21 countries. It found that in almost every territory, majorities anticipate China's global influence will expand over the coming decade.
This expectation is strongest in South Africa (83%), Brazil (72%), and Turkey (63%), but is also held by more than half of respondents in the United States (54%), across ten EU nations (53%), India (51%), and the United Kingdom (50%). The poll also revealed that most EU citizens believe China will soon lead the world in electric vehicles and renewable energy sectors.
Critically, this anticipated growth in Chinese power is not widely viewed with alarm. Only in Ukraine and South Korea did majorities label China a rival or adversary. In contrast, perceptions in nations like South Africa, India, and Brazil have warmed, with more people now seeing China as an ally compared to two years ago. Majorities in South Africa (85%), Russia (86%), and Brazil (73%) view China as either a necessary partner or an ally.
Eroding Alliances and Shifting Perceptions of the US
Concurrently, the survey paints a picture of a United States whose standing is diminishing. While many believe the US will remain influential, outside of Brazil, India, South Africa, and Turkey, there was no majority—including within the US itself—that believed American influence would grow further.
The status of the US as a reliable ally has declined across almost all surveyed nations. India was the sole country where a majority still feels the US is an ally sharing its values and interests. In Europe, the shift is stark: only 16% of EU citizens now consider the US an ally, with a striking 20% viewing it as a rival or enemy.
Expectations of Trump himself have also fallen globally. Compared to a year ago, fewer people believe his re-election is beneficial for American citizens, for their own countries, or for global peace.
Europe's Precarious Position in a Changing World
The poll, the fourth in a series carried out with Oxford University's Europe in a Changing World project, suggests perceptions of Europe are also in flux. In Russia, 51% now see Europe as an adversary, up from 41% last year, while viewing the US as an adversary has decreased to 37% from 48%.
Ukrainians, however, are more likely to see Europe as an ally (39%) than the US (18%, down from 27%). In China, 61% of respondents see the US as a threat, but only 19% think the same of the EU, with 46% viewing the bloc as mostly a partner—a sentiment shared by 40% of Americans.
Despite this, optimism about the EU's geopolitical clout is not shared by Europeans themselves. A growing number (46%, up from 42% in 2024) do not believe the EU can deal on equal terms with the US or China. Many Europeans are pessimistic about the future, worry about Russian aggression (40%) and a major European war (55%), and over half (52%) support increasing defence spending.
The report's authors—Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard, and Timothy Garton Ash—concluded the poll reveals "a world in which US actions were boosting China." They warned that Europe risks being "squeezed or simply ignored" and urged European leaders to be "realistic and daring," finding new ways to become a distinct pole in a multipolar world or risk disappearing among others.
