Donald Trump misjudged how quickly he could win this war, leading to a prolonged conflict over the Strait of Hormuz that is reshaping the global order. A White House operating without expertise, strategy or restraint is stuck in a conflict with no easy way out, sending economic shockwaves far beyond its own borders.
Within two hours of entering No 10 on Monday afternoon, Andy Burnham had his first call with Donald Trump. After chit-chatting about football and Manchester, they got on to far trickier territory: the Strait of Hormuz. The US has attacked Iran for the eleventh consecutive night, hitting aircraft hangars and drone storage sites. Iran retaliated with strikes on US air bases and neighboring Gulf states, which accused it of targeting desalination plants. Each side now claims it is preventing the other from gaining control over the strait, through which 20% of the world's oil was shipped before the war. Vessels carrying crucial shipments remain at a standstill.
Operation Epic Fury: A miscalculated gamble
Operation Epic Fury started with the aim of regime change but has morphed into reopening the strait and undoing damage caused by the US and Israel's decision to start the war. Trump drastically underestimated Iran's capacity for enduring pain and is now trying to bomb his way out of a conflict he created. According to Vali Nasr, professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies, Trump thought he would go down in history as the American president who resolved the Iran problem, a legacy-building transformation that would be quick and cost-free. That has proven a fatal miscalculation.
Pete Hegseth, the US self-styled secretary of war, said early strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, had cut off the head of the snake. But regime change is now a distant prospect. Trump underestimated the resilience of the Iranian regime and overestimated the power of protests. After just five months, his misadventure is as unpopular with American voters as the Vietnam war was six years in. It could escalate into a wider regional conflict, with the Houthis threatening a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia.
Ceasefire breakdown and shifting objectives
The memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June gave a brief respite, initiating a 60-day negotiation period. But it broke down when Iran fired on three commercial tankers using a shipping lane close to Oman. Trump went with the option to end the ceasefire, calling Iran's leaders scum and declaring it over. This week, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the mission shifted towards ensuring oil shipments could move through the strait. Before 28 February, ships had sailed through without obstruction. The US now frames a return to that status quo as a victory.
Iran and the US are still negotiating, with Tehran signaling its desire to permanently control the strait, including charging tolls. Nasr says the US now faces either a long, protracted war keeping the strait closed, or escalating to knock Iran out.
Serious misjudgment and lack of expertise
There are signs Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seriously misjudged the likelihood Iran would seize control of the strait. In an interview, Netanyahu admitted the problem of the Hormuz strait became understood as the war went on. Diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour called this an astonishing admission. The closure of the strait is a doomsday scenario previous administrations would have considered. But the US government now has very few Iran experts, as Trump has surrounded himself with loyalists. Nate Swanson, a former state department representative on the Iran negotiating team, was forced out after far-right activist Laura Loomer accused him of disloyalty.
Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said folks who've watched the Iranian system would have told Trump they're not businessmen from New York; they're made of a different type of DNA.
Economic consequences and international law
Inflation from rising oil prices is making everyday life more expensive and hiking borrowing costs for governments. If no agreement until 2027, global growth could fall by 1.3% or more. Europe is uniquely exposed, having turned to the Middle East for gas since the Russia-Ukraine war. A winter of shortages could bring to mind the 1970s oil crisis.
Trump's proposed solutions seem thought up on the spot. He suggested the US could charge tolls on ships entering the strait, despite European leaders and Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying these would be incompatible with international law. Freedom of navigation is a cornerstone of international law; without it, shipping resembles a protection racket. Some experts worry other shipping routes could become more militarized as coastal nations watch Iran use the strait as a bargaining chip. Nasr says many countries that feel they are like Iran could use passageways as a deterrent.
Impact on UK and global politics
The conflict is also affecting UK politics. Andy Burnham is under pressure to explain how he will pay for policy pledges as he implored his cabinet to tackle the cost of living crisis. The US defense secretary Pete Hegseth told the Senate the war had cost $37.5 billion so far, facing lawmakers furious over the price tag and the deaths of three American service members. About 23 million people in England and Wales will be banned from using hosepipes as drought status approaches.
In Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired the commander-in-chief and offered a prominent position to the defense minister he sacked, sparking nationwide protests.
