Saudi Arabia is preparing for a major military offensive against the Houthis by sea and possibly by land in central Yemen, according to Yemeni sources. The move aims to break the chokehold on its oil exports through the southern Red Sea.
Saudi Troop Movements and Naval Coalition
Saudi forces have been seen withdrawing from the east of Yemen, which could be preparation for a land offensive. Simultaneously, Riyadh is trying to organize a naval coalition to protect shipping from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait. The Saudi defense ministry announced on Thursday that 14 states, including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan, and Djibouti, issued a joint statement supporting a multinational maritime defense coalition.
The Iran-aligned Houthis, who control Yemen’s capital Sana’a and much of its Red Sea coastline, announced on 20 July that they were implementing a blockade against Saudi ships. However, they denied plans to impose tolls on all ships. The group says it will lift the blockade once Saudi Arabia lifts its blockade on Yemen, framing the dispute as over the future of Yemen rather than directly about Iran.
Background of Conflict
Saudi Arabia intervened in the Yemeni civil war in 2015 in support of the UN-recognized government against the Houthi rebels. Riyadh has also asked the US and European countries including Germany, France, the UK, and Italy to join a Red Sea coalition. The EU already has a naval protection mission, Aspides, operating in the Red Sea. It remains unclear if the Houthis are mounting a general blockade or one directed solely at Saudi Arabia.
Houthi forces said on 25 July they had hit “sensitive” oil transport sites inside Saudi Arabia linking eastern province oilfields to a Red Sea export hub. If the Red Sea route is closed to Saudi shipping in addition to the Strait of Hormuz blockade on the other side of the Arabian peninsula, the kingdom’s oil exports will be severely constrained.
Impact on Oil Exports
Up to 80% of Saudi crude exports were shipped through the Strait of Hormuz before the Iran war began. The Red Sea has grown in importance, with more than half of Saudi oil now transported overland to loading terminals at the port city of Yanbu.
Saudi strikes in Iraq on Wednesday killed at least 20 people as it retaliated against Iraqi militia for striking its oil facilities. Donald Trump said the joint US-Saudi attacks were mounted with the agreement of the Iraqi government, a claim Baghdad did not confirm.
Diplomatic Efforts and Next Steps
The Saudi defense minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, held an urgent meeting with Trump and JD Vance on Wednesday to discuss next steps. The Saudis are keen to show they will defend themselves and their industry but are not willing to escalate the war against Iran, arguing that disagreements between the US and Iran can still be settled by diplomacy.
The troop movements inside Yemen involve concentrating forces for what could be an attack on al-Bayda, a governorate in central southern Yemen captured by the Houthis in 2020-21, the sources said.
Recent Escalations
Fighting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has erupted in the past fortnight, with Houthis mounting attacks against Saudi Aramco facilities. The strikes inside Saudi Arabia came hours after Saudi airstrikes targeted Houthi-controlled sites in the port of Hodeidah and a third Saudi commercial vessel was attacked in the Red Sea.
Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have been vying for control of Yemen for more than a decade, and an uneasy status quo has unraveled over the past month. The tensions inside Yemen would be reduced if the Gulf states and Iran could reach an agreement for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Talks between Oman and Iran are continuing, with Iran demanding that all shipping enter the strait through a northern route close to Iran’s coast.
