Space is becoming a militarized and commercialized frontier
Physicist Laura Grego, research director of the Global Security programme at the Union of Concerned Scientists, warns that public awareness of space activities is dangerously low. 'Most people don't know we've set up a system that is essentially a doomsday system,' she says. 'And we can dismantle it. We just have not.'
Grego explains that the average person's experience of space is about to change dramatically. 'There are plans for tens of thousands more satellites, which would really change your relationship with what you see in the sky.' SpaceX, for example, has applied for permission to launch up to 1 million satellites.
The military origins and current risks
Space has always been a military zone, Grego notes. The first satellite, Sputnik 1, was a geopolitical assertion. The rocket launcher used is similar to an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). 'Once you have a working ICBM, you could put a nuclear weapon on top of it and send it from the Soviet Union to the United States in half an hour.'
Today, satellites are vulnerable to jamming, spoofing, cyberattacks, and even physical attacks. 'Most of the big spacefaring countries, which also happen to be nuclear countries, are testing weapons that you could use against other satellites.' Grego warns that if a satellite is destroyed, fragments traveling at high speed could take out other satellites.
Nuclear vulnerability and decision-making pressure
Grego highlights the extreme time pressure on a president to decide whether to launch ICBMs. 'The whole ICBM trajectory only lasts half an hour, and you're compressed by detection, communication. So a president would have less than 10 minutes to decide whether to launch ICBMs or to wait it out.'
She adds that if a counterattack is launched even by accident, it could lead to a 'civilisation-ending day – or an afternoon.' She points out that all nuclear-armed countries are modernizing their arsenals, and arms-control treaties have expired.
Commercial expansion and lack of regulation
Commercial companies like SpaceX are pushing boundaries. 'They're racing ahead with technical capabilities beyond our legal and normative structures,' Grego says. She notes that Starlink user agreements state that for services on Mars, 'no Earth-based government has authority or sovereignty over Martian activities,' effectively claiming self-governance.
Grego argues that the extractive colonialist framework on Earth is being replicated in space. 'We have a chance to do this better as we move into space. And so we shouldn't cede that power to the first most powerful company that's able to do it.'
Need for public awareness and better governance
Grego calls for a reframing of the narrative around space. 'The dominant story is really problematic, which is: space is the final frontier. The US military likes to call it the space domain, and that it needs to be dominated.'
She emphasizes that humanity must consider whether we should step back. 'I happen to think Earth is a really nice place. It's beautiful. Mars has none of that. If we think humanity is something worth saving, then we actually have a lot we need to do to make sure that happens.'
