Four in five Britons are worried that the Iran war will make food more expensive, according to a new poll, as businesses warn the government is running out of time to cut energy costs for UK retailers.
Poll Findings and Consumer Concerns
Research by Opinium found that 80% of people are concerned about rising grocery prices, which could result from retailers passing on cost increases to consumers. Additionally, 73% expect the conflict to push up prices of other products. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has already sent oil and gas prices soaring, caused a crisis in the global fertiliser industry, and made shipping and distribution more expensive.
Impact on Businesses and Government Response
The effects have been felt most acutely in sectors such as manufacturing and chemicals, which use high amounts of gas. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced more support on bills for the most energy-intensive businesses in April, but now faces fresh calls to cut costs for the food sector. Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium (BRC), said the war is “driving up costs across the supply chain and families are right to be concerned.”
Dickinson urged ministers to remove non-commodity energy costs for retailers, which are charges and fees that make up a large portion of electricity bills for companies. “Other governments are already acting,” she added. “Germany has reduced electricity costs for businesses by moving levies off bills, and EU leaders are actively discussing similar responses. The UK should be moving in the same direction.”
Broader Economic Implications
The Opinium survey suggested the cost of living crisis would remain an important political issue beyond the local elections. Of the 2,000 people polled, 81% were worried about rising energy bills, 76% about petrol and diesel prices, and 68% about tax increases. All these factors could contribute to rising grocery prices. The Bank of England forecasts food inflation to rise to 7% by the end of the year due to higher fertiliser, energy, and transport costs.
Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 3.7% in the year to March 2026, up from 3.3% the previous month. Supermarket bosses met Chancellor Reeves at the start of April to assess the Middle East conflict’s impact on the cost of living. Simon Roberts, boss of Sainsbury’s, said limiting energy prices for retailers was “the single biggest thing the government should do to keep prices down.”
Uncertainty in the Middle East
Uncertainty continues in the Middle East, where Donald Trump’s promise to use warships to open a route through the Strait of Hormuz for hundreds of trapped ships brought the region back to the brink of full-scale war, as Iran sought to reassert its blockade. Research earlier this week found that food prices are on track to be 50% higher in November than at the start of the cost of living crisis in 2021. Climate and energy shocks have driven an almost quadrupling of the pace of food price growth, according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit thinktank.
Dickinson added: “Retailers are working hard to hold prices down, but they cannot do it alone. Every cost government chooses not to address is a cost that will find its way into someone’s shopping basket. That is a political choice, and it is one ministers still have time to change – but the window to act is closing.”
A government spokesperson said: “We are acting to protect people from any potential increases in food prices. We have already suspended select food tariffs and continue to work closely with the sector to keep household bills down.”
