Obesity rates in some countries are leveling off or potentially falling, according to a new study that challenges the notion of an inevitable global epidemic. Researchers found that while obesity prevalence has increased in nearly all countries over the past 45 years, many high-income nations are now experiencing a slowdown, plateau, or even decline.
Key Findings
Published in the journal Nature, the study analyzed data from 4,050 population-based studies involving 232 million participants aged five and older. The international team, including nearly 2,000 researchers, calculated annual changes in obesity prevalence from 1980 to 2024.
In most high-income countries, the rapid rise in obesity has been replaced by slower growth, stabilization, or potential decline. For example, in the United States and United Kingdom, the rate of increase is slowing, with 2024 obesity prevalence estimated at 40–43% and 27–30%, respectively. In France, obesity may have started to decline, with prevalence at 11–12% among adults. Germany has plateaued at 20–23%, while Finland continues to see steady increases.
Children and Adolescents
Slowdowns in obesity rates were often observed in children and adolescents before adults. In Denmark, the slowdown began as early as 1990, and rates stabilized in most high-income countries by the mid-2000s. In the UK, US, Germany, and Japan, childhood obesity has plateaued at varying levels: 10–12%, 20–23%, 7–12%, and 3–7%, respectively.
Diverging Trends in Low-Income Countries
Meanwhile, obesity continues to rise in many low- and middle-income countries, with some experiencing accelerating rates. This divergence highlights the complexity of obesity trends across different regions.
Reasons Behind the Trends
Professor Majid Ezzati of Imperial College London, the study's lead author, emphasized the importance of understanding country-specific factors. While shared factors like easy access to unhealthy foods and decreased physical activity contribute to obesity, social, economic, and policy considerations also play a role. These include body image perceptions, school meal programs, and other interventions.
Professor Naveed Sattar of the University of Glasgow, not involved in the study, noted that English-speaking nations are performing poorly, with the UK among the highest obesity levels worldwide. He called for understanding what has worked in countries that have reached a plateau to inform public health strategies.
Sattar also expressed concern about the rapid rise in developing countries, which could lead to increased diabetes and cardiovascular conditions. He noted that the wider use of effective weight-loss medicines, combined with public health measures, could help shift obesity rates in the right direction.
