Hawaii has declared a state of emergency as Hurricane Lowell advances toward the islands, with initial impacts forecast as early as Monday. The storm is the third system in just over three weeks to threaten the state during an active hurricane season in the central Pacific.
Storm status and projected path
As of early Sunday morning, Lowell remained a Category 3 hurricane, packing winds of 125 miles per hour while moving northwest at six miles per hour. According to forecasts, Lowell is expected to reach Hawaii as a Category 2 hurricane, with its center potentially passing roughly 130 miles west of Ni’ihau or 170 miles west of Kauai between Monday evening and Tuesday morning.
The storm’s projected offshore path is expected to keep the most dangerous winds away from Hawaii’s islands. However, heavy rain, high surf, and dangerous coastal conditions are still anticipated. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Kauai and Ni’ihau, where wind gusts above 39 miles per hour are possible over the next 48 hours.
Unusual Pacific hurricane activity
The threat comes amid unusually intense hurricane activity across the Pacific. As of Saturday, hurricanes Karina, Lowell, and Marie were all churning in the Pacific simultaneously, marking the region’s first triple-hurricane stretch in a decade. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) was also monitoring a fourth potential system off the coast of Mexico.
The Pacific averages only eight hurricanes per year, according to the NHC, making three simultaneous hurricanes highly unusual. The escalating storm activity follows a period of repeated impacts on Hawaii, including Tropical Storm Moke, which struck the southern part of the islands two weeks ago, bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds. That event came just days after Hurricane Lala hit the region.
Damage and climate context
Hawaii Governor Josh Green said Lala alone had caused at least $43 million in infrastructure damage on the Big Island, along with another $4.6 million in damage to homes. Lowell is the third storm in a matter of weeks to hit Hawaii as the climate crisis continues to increase the intensity and frequency of storms and other weather events.
The UN warns that this year’s El Niño is forecast to become the strongest on record in four decades. A statement released on Thursday described El Niño as being “supersized before our eyes,” adding that the world is in “the danger zone of extreme weather.” The latest data on the natural climate phenomenon shows a near 100% likelihood that the latest El Niño will continue through February 2027, the statement said. The stronger an El Niño becomes, the greater the chance it will significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns around the world and help fuel extreme weather.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has previously warned there is a 69% chance that this El Niño will be the strongest in 70 years. As Lowell approaches, authorities are urging residents to prepare for potential flooding, high winds, and hazardous coastal conditions, with the storm’s impacts expected to unfold over the coming days.
