The palpable absence of the United States from the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil has created an atmosphere of cautious relief mixed with underlying anxiety among international delegates. With Donald Trump's administration having withdrawn from global climate efforts, the world's largest economy is notably missing from the critical negotiations.
A Bully's Absence Brings Temporary Relief
Delegates at the summit initially expressed relief at America's non-participation, comparing it to the school bully taking a sick day. Under Trump's leadership, the US has not only abandoned climate crisis initiatives but actively worked to undermine other nations' transitions to cleaner energy sources like solar and wind power.
The former president reinforced his position during a September UN address, where he labelled the climate crisis "the greatest con job perpetrated by the world" and urged governments to maintain reliance on oil and gas rather than what he called the "scam" of renewable energy.
Progress Amid Apprehension
Without American obstruction, other nations have been able to advance discussions on bridging the significant gap between scientific recommendations for avoiding disastrous climate impacts and current global responses. Christiana Figueres, former executive secretary of the United Nations framework convention on climate change, described the US departure as "actually a good thing," famously bidding "Ciao, bambino" to mark America's exit from the Paris agreement.
However, Trump's energy secretary, Chris Wright, recently declared that COP30 is "essentially a hoax" and suggested the administration might attend next year's talks "just to try to deliver some common sense."
Nervous Diplomats and Vulnerability Concerns
Despite the official US absence, waves of nervousness ripple through the diplomatic corps in Brazil. Many negotiators privately admit to treading carefully, wary of provoking Trump's administration. Several have expressed reluctance to speak publicly about the US due to fears of retribution.
Bill Hare, a veteran climate scientist and COP participant, noted that "The negotiators are talking about it and worrying about it. The small countries are all saying, 'We could be vulnerable. We could get picked off at a capital level.'"
Concerns about potential US intervention stem from recent behaviour at international environmental meetings. During discussions about curbing shipping emissions, American representatives were accused of employing bullying tactics to derail the process.
As the two-week summit progresses towards potentially significant climate agreements requiring consensus, the threat of last-minute Trump administration interference remains very real. Hare predicted that "If more concrete decisions come to implement a list of issues, that's when I expect to start to see pushback diplomatically from the Trump administration."
The current situation highlights the challenging landscape of international climate diplomacy, where even an absent America continues to cast a long shadow over global environmental cooperation efforts.
