A scientific analysis has found that extreme heat supercharged by the climate crisis is intensifying drought across Europe, sucking moisture from rivers, lakes, soils, and plants. Record-breaking heatwaves made the atmosphere thirstier, with conditions made 80 times more likely by global heating in western Europe and 40 times more likely in eastern Europe.
Soil dryness and crop losses
The study showed that soil dryness in western Europe was made five times more likely by fossil fuel pollution, and 11 times more likely in eastern Europe. Droughts have typically been linked to low rainfall, but western Europe experienced a wet winter. Scientists say the climate crisis is redefining drought, with high temperatures now the key factor. The current drought in western Europe is classified as “extreme” but would have been “moderate” in a pre-climate world.
Assessed through the end of June, the drought is already causing major impacts. Many countries have imposed emergency water restrictions, with most of southern England under a hosepipe ban. Deadly wildfires have raged in Spain and France, and farmers face some of the driest soils on record. About 9 million tonnes of grain are expected to be lost across Europe, with France facing its worst maize harvest in 50 years and Romanian farmers losing over a million hectares of crops.
Rivers and energy impacts
Rivers across Europe are running low, reducing clean hydropower generation and restricting cargo shipping. The Rhine at Lobith in the Netherlands is lower than the minimum level seen in the hot summer of 1976. Scientists warn that this disruption could push up food and energy prices, hitting low-income households hardest.
Dr Dominik Schumacher, at ETH Zurich, said: “We now see an enhanced tendency for unusual soil drying already in spring, before summer has even begun. That is our own doing: as temperatures climb, the atmosphere’s thirst increases quickly, sucking moisture out of rivers, lakes, reservoirs and the soil. If you have increasingly hot air, it will suck the soils dry.” The 2026 drought arrived two months earlier than the 2022 drought, he added.
Wildfire risks and future projections
Schumacher noted that this year has seen particularly dangerous wildfire conditions in western Europe. “Conditions starting off fairly wet and then transitioning to very, very dry are the prime ingredients for an extreme fire season, because more vegetation can grow and then burn later on.”
Dr Mariam Zachariah, at Imperial College London, said: “What’s most alarming is that these conditions are occurring at 1.4C of warming. If global emissions push temperatures up to 2.8C as predicted, these intense evaporative conditions could double in likelihood. Without rapid, aggressive emissions cuts, Europe is heading for a future where these scorching, dry summers happen time and time again.”
UN and expert reactions
UN climate chief Simon Stiell said: “Worsening droughts are an unignorable red alert that our planet is overheating. Until humanity stops burning huge amounts of coal, oil and gas, these brutal climate-driven droughts will only get more severe and more costly for households and whole economies alike. But the solutions are just as clear: move much faster to renewable energy.”
The analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) consortium used peer-reviewed methods to assess the drought in western Europe from April to June, and in eastern Europe over the past 12 months. The researchers concluded that human-induced climate change made the 2026 drought more severe in both regions.
Heatwave and economic costs
A previous WWA study found that the heatwave at the end of June was the worst on record for Europe and would have been impossible without the climate crisis. An estimated 20,000 Europeans died due to the high temperatures, including about 2,200 in England and Wales. A separate study estimated that lost working hours in the UK alone cost the economy more than £1bn.
Tom Lancaster, at the UK’s Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: “The heatwaves this summer have been a shocking reminder that climate change is a problem for now, not for the future. And it is hitting the very foundations of our way of life, none more fundamental than access to secure, safe supplies of water for drinking and growing food.” Helen Wakeham, chair of England’s National Drought Group, added: “Dry weather depletes our water, while the hot conditions mean we use more of it. This is a difficult combination.”
