The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has confirmed that Sydney experienced its warmest winter on record, with a mean temperature of 15.3C at Observatory Hill, surpassing the previous record of 15.0C set in 2013. The announcement came as New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania all recorded their warmest winters since national observations began in 1910.
Record-breaking temperatures across eastern states
Melbourne equalled its 2005 record for winter mean temperature of 12.2C, while Canberra recorded its warmest winter maximum, with an average maximum temperature of 14.7C. Australia's mean temperature for winter was 1.45C above the 1961–1990 average, marking the equal third-highest on record since 1910.
Dr Simon Grainger, a senior climatologist at the bureau, attributed the conditions to several factors. “The local weather patterns certainly assisted. For large parts of this winter we had high pressure systems sitting in the Tasman sea,” he said. “That allowed a lot of warmer air to come down from the tropics over eastern Australia – places like Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne – with fewer outbreaks of cold air getting in.”
El Niño and global warming influence
Grainger noted that the developing strong El Niño had also set up weather patterns favourable for high daytime temperatures across southeastern Australia. “Finally of course, all of this is occurring against the background of a globally warmer climate,” he said. “Daily [global] land temperatures and daily ocean temperatures during August have been close to or above the historical records that were set only in 2024.”
According to the BoM, Australia's national annual average temperature is about 1.5C higher than in 1910, and the climate crisis, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, has increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather events.
Rainfall patterns and spring outlook
The national average rainfall for winter was 8% above the 1961–1990 average, driven by high rainfall in southern inland Australia. Grainger said parts of inland NSW, Victoria, South Australia, and parts of the Northern Territory had above average rainfall, with parts of far-western NSW near the SA border experiencing their wettest winter on record. South Australia recorded its sixth wettest winter on record, while rainfall was below average in parts of the east coast and south-western Australia.
The BoM's long-range forecast indicates below average rainfall is expected to continue through parts of southern and eastern Australia through spring, while above average rainfall is expected in large parts of the west from October. Grainger said a continuation of above average daytime and nighttime temperatures was likely for much of the country, with an increased chance of unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures. The bureau's models show the El Niño in the Pacific Ocean would continue to strengthen through spring, likely peaking in late spring or in summer.
Environmental and economic impacts
Prof Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate scientist from the Australian National University, warned of negative consequences for natural ecosystems. “We need to consider what's happening to our natural ecosystems,” she said. “A lot of our ecosystems need cooler temperatures, a lot of our animals are used to it, and if we start taking that out of the picture, then things aren't looking so healthy.”
She pointed to the recent snow season, where low falls had affected the tourism industry, with resorts in Victoria and NSW forced to close early. “Snowfall in Australia is pretty rare, and just notching the temperature up to a couple of degrees during winter basically puts us above freezing point most of the time,” she said.
The record-breaking winter data was released as federal resources minister Madeleine King and Northern Territory chief minister Lia Finocchiaro celebrated turning on the tap that will feed the first fracked gas from the Beetaloo Basin into the territory's power grid. This follows a northern hemisphere summer of record-breaking heatwaves, drought, and wildfires in Europe and North America, and intense rain and typhoons in Asia.
