The average long-term mortgage rate in the United States has fallen below 6% for the first time since late 2022, offering a potential boost to the spring home-buying season. According to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac, the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 5.98% this week, down from 6.01% last week. This marks the third consecutive weekly decrease and brings the rate to its lowest point since September 8, 2022, when it stood at 5.89%.
Historical Context and Economic Factors
One year ago, the average rate was significantly higher at 6.76%. Mortgage rates are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and bond market investors' expectations regarding the economy and inflation. These rates typically follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which serves as a key benchmark for lenders when pricing home loans. As of midday Thursday, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.02%, down from approximately 4.07% a week earlier.
Impact on the Housing Market
Mortgage rates have been trending lower for several months, contributing to a modest increase in home sales during the final four months of 2025. However, this improvement has not been sufficient to fully revive the housing market from its prolonged slump, which began in 2022 when rates started rising from pandemic-era lows. Sales of previously occupied homes in the US remained at 30-year lows throughout last year. Even with more favorable mortgage rates this year, home sales experienced a significant setback last month, recording the largest monthly decline in nearly four years and the slowest annualized sales pace in over two years.
Spring Season Prospects
Despite these challenges, the recent drop in mortgage rates below the 6% threshold as the spring home-buying season commences could encourage prospective buyers who can afford current rates to enter the market. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, expressed optimism about the potential for increased activity. "Assuming rates stay below 6%, buyers and sellers are going to start getting back into the market," she stated. "March is when the spring home-buying season typically begins to ramp up, and with rates at a three-and-a-half-year low, it could be a barn burner of a spring home-buying season."
Broader Market Implications
The housing market's performance in the coming months will be closely watched by economists and industry analysts. While lower rates provide a favorable environment for buyers, the overall health of the market depends on various factors, including inventory levels, affordability, and broader economic conditions. The sustained decline in mortgage rates, if maintained, could help alleviate some of the pressure on potential homebuyers and contribute to a more dynamic spring season. However, the market remains sensitive to fluctuations in economic indicators and policy decisions, underscoring the need for cautious optimism among stakeholders.
