Wednesday briefing: How Trump’s attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz brought war closer again
Good morning. Uncertainty once again reigns in the Middle East. The uneasy ceasefire between the US and Iran threatened to disintegrate after Donald Trump launched an initiative – dubbed “Project Freedom” – to help thousands of sailors stranded in the Gulf by the war to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
To Iran, the announcement was a cynical provocation. Flurries of fighting restarted as Iran sought to maintain its grip on the critical passageway out of the region.
However overnight, the US president declared via social media that his project had been “paused for a short period of time” to see if an agreement with Iran could be finalised, but added that the blockade of ports would remain in place.
For today’s First Edition, I spoke with Julian Borger, the Guardian’s senior international correspondent, about Trump’s strategy and the likelihood of a return to war. But first, this morning’s headlines.
Five big stories
- UK politics | Zack Polanski falsely claimed to be a spokesperson for the British Red Cross while campaigning for the Green party leadership, the charity has said.
- Fuel shortages | Two million airline seats have been cut from this month’s schedules as airlines redraw their operations because of soaring jet fuel prices amid the Middle East conflict.
- UK news | A British crew member who became ill after a suspected outbreak of hantavirus on luxury cruise ship the MV Hondius is to be medically evacuated, officials have said.
- Tax | An increased windfall tax should be imposed on the UK’s largest banks, say trade union leaders, after the big four lenders reported almost £14bn in first-quarter profits, partly fuelled by market turbulence amid the Iran war.
- Society | People from black backgrounds in England are twice as likely to experience strokes as their white counterparts, while also being less likely to receive timely care, according to the largest study of its kind.
In depth: ‘Iran’s strength is its ability to keep the strait closed’
Since the conflict began in late February, an estimated 20,000 sailors have been trapped in the Gulf, unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz into the open ocean. Concerns about their physical and mental health are growing as they face the prospect of enduring a blistering Middle Eastern summer while at anchor waiting for peace. Food and essential supplies are feared to be running low on some trapped vessels.
On Sunday, Trump announced the launch of Project Freedom, a presidential initiative, which would see the stranded 850 vessels pass through the southern section of the Strait of Hormuz under the protection of the US military. Trump presented the plan as a humanitarian endeavour “meant to free people, companies, and countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong – they are victims of circumstance” in a post on Truth Social.
But Iran did not buy it. They have imposed a blockade on foreign shipping since US-Israeli attacks on 28 February – and maintaining the closure is a key part of their negotiating position. Iran fired missiles at the UAE – a reminder to the world that a return to war is close. In a spate of claims and counterclaims, the US military said that they had destroyed six Iranian small boats carrying missiles and drones.
Both sides appear keen to avoid a return to fighting. On Tuesday, the US’s top general Dan Caine clarified that Iran had not broken the ceasefire despite clashes over the strait.
Now the US has backed down on the effort to guide stranded ships out – for now. Posting on Truth Social late on Tuesday, Trump said he had made the decision based “on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran”.
But unease remains, with no direct response yet from Iran and a lack of clarity over whether Trump could reinstate his latest mission. And observers fear another round of violence is not far away.
A desperate situation
Trump’s Project Freedom was aimed at undermining Iran’s capacity to maintain its blockade of the strait, says Julian Borger.
“Iran’s strength is its ability to keep the strait closed – and if that gets challenged then that’s an important card that Iran would have lost. That’s why it’s so important for them to keep it closed,” he says. “Even though Iran is being careful not to engage with the US navy directly, it is keen to keep up a sense of threat around going through the strait.”
Just two vessels passed through the strait during Trump’s short-lived project. The US route passes through Emirati and Omani waters, which are more difficult to navigate than the Iranian side due to coral reefs and other hazards. But the sheer length of time that ships have been stranded in the Gulf means that some will probably risk the route, says Julian.
“For shipowners and crews, you’ve got to remember how desperate they are. They have been stuck there for weeks and weeks with no end in sight, so it is tempting for some to at least try to get out,” he says. “The owners will be watching to see what happens with the first trickle of ships.”
Military v government
After the initiative was announced, a South Korean flagged vessel was struck by what President Trump said was an Iranian attack, and missiles were fired at the UAE by Iran. The Iranians later apologised – but the volley highlights the challenge of convincing shipowners that it is safe to pass through the strait, especially with Iran’s decentralised military doctrine, which permits its military commanders significant freedom to operate independently of the country’s rulers.
“Before the war, part of Iran’s defence doctrine was based on the expectation that their leadership would get decapitated. So, local commanders were given a lot of leeway in how they chose to carry out their operations and could inflict as much damage on the enemy as possible,” says Julian. “In a delicate situation like this, it’s difficult for the decentralised Iranian system to collaborate as much as they might want. This might be the reason you had those strikes on the UAE and then an expression of regret.”
Markets were unconvinced by the move from Trump, with oil hovering about $115 a barrel. The Taco trade (“Trump always chickens out”) has been replaced by the Nacho trade (Not a chance Hormuz opens), according to Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas – and right now it appears both may be true.
An alternative to war
Despite the signalling from both Iran and the US that neither are keen to return to fighting, the game of chicken around the strait could easily lead to the end of the ceasefire, says Julian. The US has been resupplying its forces in the region, which includes guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land and sea based aircraft, drones and about 15,000 troops. On Monday, Trump said Iran would be “blown off the face of the Earth” if vessels taking part in Project Freedom were attacked.
“It definitely brings us closer to a return to fighting. Iran is in a difficult situation. It wants to keep the air of threat to dissuade shipping, but it does not want to go back to war. On the other hand, nor does Trump. Last week, he was given options by American military commanders which included a return to full-scale war or naval escorts. He chose the most cautious option, which is Project Freedom. But they are prepared to go back to war,” he says.
