West Ham's Survival Bid: Predicted Final Table and Run-In Compared to Nottingham Forest and Leeds United
By Jamie Kemble, Football Reporter. Published 16th March 2026, 06:42 GMT.
West Ham secured a crucial point over the weekend, holding Manchester City to a draw at home. This result may have effectively ended the title race, but more importantly for the Hammers, it significantly bolstered their fight to avoid relegation from the Premier League.
In a twist of fate, Tottenham managed a dramatic late draw with Liverpool, while both Leeds United and Nottingham Forest also drew their respective matches. This means the relegation battle remains largely unchanged at the bottom of the table. However, there is no denying that the point earned against City, similar to a recent result by Forest, could prove invaluable in the coming weeks.
The Current Relegation Battle Picture
Here is the current state of the relegation scrap. Wolves have been excluded due to the near certainty of their relegation.
- 15th - Leeds United - 32 points // Goal difference: -11
- 16th - Tottenham Hotspur - 30 points // Goal difference: -7
- 17th - Nottingham Forest - 29 points // Goal difference: -15
- 18th - West Ham United - 29 points // Goal difference: -19
- 19th - Burnley - 20 points // Goal difference: -26
The Predicted Final Table
According to OPTA's simulations, here is the projected final table with relegation probabilities.
- 15th - Leeds United - 42.21 points // Relegation probability: 6.45%
- 16th - Tottenham Hotspur - 40.43 points // Relegation probability: 13.18%
- 17th - Nottingham Forest - 38.33 points // Relegation probability: 34.05%
- 18th - West Ham United - 37.76 points // Relegation probability: 46.57%
- 19th - Burnley - 27.10 points // Relegation probability: 99.65%
Run-Ins Compared for Survival Contenders
For this analysis, Burnley is omitted given their high likelihood of relegation. The remaining fixtures for each team are detailed below.
Leeds United's Remaining Fixtures
Brentford (H), Manchester United (A), Wolves (H), AFC Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H), Tottenham Hotspur (A), Brighton & Hove Albion (H), West Ham United (A).
Tottenham Hotspur's Remaining Fixtures
Liverpool (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Sunderland (A), Brighton & Hove Albion (H), Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds United (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H).
Nottingham Forest's Remaining Fixtures
Tottenham Hotspur (A), Aston Villa (H), Burnley (H), Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle United (H), Manchester United (A), AFC Bournemouth (H).
West Ham United's Remaining Fixtures
Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H), Crystal Palace (A), Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle United (A), Leeds United (H).
The race for survival is intensifying, with every point critical. West Ham's draw against City highlights their resilience, but the upcoming matches will be decisive in determining their Premier League fate alongside rivals Nottingham Forest and Leeds United.
