Chelsea's Top Four Hopes Dwindle: Predicted Final Table and Run-In Analysis
Chelsea's bid for a top-four finish in the Premier League is barely clinging to life following a period of extremely inconsistent performances in recent weeks. Manager Liam Rosenior has struggled to turn things around, with his side suffering another hugely disappointing defeat in their last outing.
That result left the Blues six points adrift of the coveted Champions League qualification spots. Their best hope for securing elite European football now likely depends on fifth place becoming a Champions League spot. If that scenario materializes, Chelsea still retain some hope, especially with Liverpool also experiencing poor form.
Current Premier League Standings
Here is how the Premier League table currently looks as the season approaches its climax:
- 3rd - Manchester United - 55 points // 13 goal difference
- 4th - Aston Villa - 54 points // 5 goal difference
- 5th - Liverpool - 49 points // 8 goal difference
- 6th - Chelsea - 48 points // 15 goal difference
- 7th - Brentford - 46 points // 4 goal difference
Predicted Final Premier League Table
According to OPTA's sophisticated statistical models, which use numerous simulations to predict the most likely final standings, here is how the table is projected to finish:
- 3rd - Manchester United - 66.02 points // UCL probability - 85.48%
- 4th - Aston Villa - 65.09 points // UCL probability - 77.50%
- 5th - Liverpool - 60.34 points // UCL probability - 22.82%
- 6th - Chelsea - 58.30 points // UCL probability - 9.94%
- 7th - Brentford - 55.66 points // UCL probability - 1.92%
Important note: The 'UCL probability' calculation factors in the possibility of the Premier League gaining an additional Champions League qualification place. This would make fifth position an automatic Champions League spot. For this to happen, England would need to be among the two best-performing nations in European competitions this season.
Remaining Fixtures Compared
The run-in for each team competing for European qualification presents different challenges:
Manchester United: Leeds (H), Chelsea (A), Brentford (H), Liverpool (H), Sunderland (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Brighton (A).
Aston Villa: Nottingham Forest (A), Sunderland (H), Fulham (A), Tottenham (H), Burnley (A), Liverpool (H), Manchester City (A).
Liverpool: Fulham (H), Everton (A), Crystal Palace (H), Manchester United (A), Chelsea (H), Aston Villa (A), Brentford (H).
Chelsea: Manchester City (H), Manchester United (H), Brighton (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Liverpool (A), Tottenham (H), Sunderland (A).
Brentford: Everton (H), Fulham (H), Manchester United (A), West Ham (H), Manchester City (A), Crystal Palace (H), Liverpool (A).
Chelsea face a particularly challenging schedule that includes matches against Manchester City, Manchester United, and Liverpool. Their fate may well be determined by how they perform in these crucial encounters against direct rivals. The Blues must significantly improve their recent form to have any realistic chance of climbing into the top five, let alone the top four.
