A report warns that an additional 50,000 people in England will become homeless within the next four years without radical action, including a “housing first” agenda. The incoming prime minister, Andy Burnham, has been briefed on projections showing that current record homelessness levels could rise by 25% by 2030, reaching more than 230,000 people.
Burnham's Housing Plans
Burnham, who is expected to become prime minister on 20 July, has promised the “biggest council housebuilding programme since the postwar period”. He has told advisers he wants to see a rapid decline in rough sleeping within months of taking office.
Official figures show the number of people sleeping on the streets in England reached a record 4,793 last summer, though this is believed to be an underestimate. Including those in hostels and temporary accommodation, the official homeless figure stands at over 180,000 people in England.
Report Findings and Recommendations
The report, due to be published on Monday by the thinktank IPPR North and the charity Crisis, warns that without bold policies, homelessness in England will rise by 25% – equivalent to about 50,000 people – by 2030. The analysis, based on government figures, suggests the number of people owed a homelessness duty by their local authority will increase from 182,540 last year to 231,299 in 2029-30.
The report calls for a national expansion of Burnham’s “A Bed Every Night” programme, which provides a bed and personalised support to individuals at risk of rough sleeping in Greater Manchester. It also urges councils to bring long-term empty homes back into use to reduce reliance on expensive temporary accommodation.
The report states that councils are being “pushed closer to bankruptcy as billions are spent on costly, ineffective temporary accommodation including hostels and B&Bs often charged at high nightly rates. Yet, this system offers neither stability nor a genuine pathway out of homelessness”.
Government Spending and Context
Britain’s homelessness rate has risen to record levels due to a shortage of social and affordable housing, particularly in London, where housing allowance has not kept pace with soaring rents. According to the Institute for Government, the UK government spent £3.8bn on homelessness last year, more than double the amount in 2010. Most of this money goes to temporary housing. Council spending on temporary accommodation in England rose from £70.3m in 2009-10 to at least £1.3bn by 2024-25.
The current government, led by Keir Starmer, has promised to build 1.5m homes, including a “generational increase” in social and affordable homes, by August 2029.
Expert Reactions
Matt Downie, chief executive of Crisis, said it would be “madness” for ministers to continue “spending billions of pounds trapping people in homelessness and getting terrible outcomes for people”. He added that Burnham understands the scale of the problem and wants to make it a priority, as he did as mayor of Greater Manchester.
Downie remarked: “I’ve never seen anyone that is on the brink of being a prime minister even talk about homelessness, let alone have a deep knowledge about how it can and should be tackled. This is a completely unique once-in-a-generation opportunity for this country to follow a leader who’s got a real sense of purpose and an evidence-based ideology on how to tackle the problem.”
