In a revealing glimpse into the shifting political landscape, focus groups conducted by More in Common in Warrington South and Godalming and Ash have shed light on the deepening fractures within the British right. As the Conservative Party grapples with internal strife and Reform UK surges in popularity, voters express a mix of frustration, hope, and scepticism towards the major political players.
The Battle for the Right: From Red Wall to Blue Wall
Warrington South, a marginal constituency just outside the so-called "red wall" in north-west England, voted Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum and backed Boris Johnson in 2019, only to swing to Labour in the 2024 general election. Today, polling models suggest Reform UK could comfortably win this seat, highlighting the dramatic realignment of voter loyalties. In stark contrast, Godalming and Ash, an affluent commuter seat in Surrey deep within the "blue wall," voted Remain and saw Conservative Chancellor Jeremy Hunt narrowly retain it in 2024, a rare success for the Tories amid widespread losses.
Kemi Badenoch's Decisive Move and Tory Infighting
The recent dismissal of Robert Jenrick by Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch has reignited debates about Conservative unity. Participants in both focus groups responded positively to Badenoch's firm handling of the situation. Sarah, an admin officer from Godalming, described being "blown away" by Badenoch's decisiveness, while James, an IT engineer from Warrington, praised her clarity. However, this approval was tempered by concerns over the party's persistent infighting. Allie remarked that while Badenoch is "one to watch," the situation feels "a bit risky," echoing fears of a return to the chaos that characterised the last Conservative government.
Robert Jenrick's Defection and the 'Broken Britain' Debate
Robert Jenrick's defection to Reform UK and his claims of a "broken Britain" failed to resonate with voters in these groups. George, a service engineer from Warrington, criticised Jenrick as appearing "primed" or "scripted," while Jenna found him "not very convincing." In Godalming, Allie dismissed his rhetoric as hyperbolic, calling him a "drama queen" and "a bit sensationalist." Despite this scepticism, participants acknowledged underlying issues: in Warrington, Derek listed the NHS, police forces, and pensions as broken systems, and Valerie, a receptionist in her 70s, highlighted the soaring cost of living forcing her to work longer than expected.
Nigel Farage's Appeal and Trump Problem
Nigel Farage's leadership of Reform UK has garnered mixed reactions. Valerie from Warrington noted, "I don't like him but he stands by his convictions," a sentiment echoed by Rachel, who compared him to Margaret Thatcher for his steadfastness. Even in Godalming, Jenna expressed tentative faith in Farage, describing him as "more positive and proactive." However, a significant barrier for many voters is Farage's association with former US President Donald Trump. Matthew from Godalming labelled Farage a "mini Trump," fearing he would lead the country "down the wrong path." Valerie went further, stating Trump could push the world towards "world war three," reflecting widespread unease about this link.
Reform UK's Recruitment and Voter Sentiment
The influx of Tory defectors into Reform UK did not concern most participants. Tom from Godalming likened the party to the "Globetrotters," selectively taking the best talent, while Valerie saw it as a strategic move akin to a company hiring from competitors. Allegations of racism against Farage from his school days were largely dismissed, with Helen arguing that people often regret youthful mistakes as they mature.
Keir Starmer's Leadership and the Search for Alternatives
Across both groups, Prime Minister Keir Starmer was perceived as lacking direction. Allie summarised this view by saying Starmer was "floating over it all without going very deep into anything." This sense of a leader adrift, combined with disillusionment with both major parties, is driving voters towards more radical options. Derek encapsulated this sentiment: "We've tried Conservative, we've tried Labour, they didn't work. Why not try Reform? We've got nothing to lose."
The findings underscore a fragmented political right, torn between traditional conservatism and Reform's insurgent appeal, with Starmer's Labour struggling to capitalise on Tory weaknesses. As Britain grapples with perceived crises, voters are increasingly willing to experiment with new political forces, despite lingering reservations about their leaders and associations.
