Dan Jarvis, the newly appointed UK defence secretary, has committed to publishing the long-delayed defence investment plan (Dip) before the upcoming Nato summit in Ankara, Turkey, scheduled for 7-8 July. Speaking at a military thinktank conference on Tuesday, Jarvis indicated he has already secured approximately £1bn more in funding than his predecessor, John Healey, who resigned earlier this month.
Details of the Defence Investment Plan
The Dip covers the Ministry of Defence's (MoD) major capital programmes for the next decade. Healey had failed to secure more than £13.5bn to plug an £18bn funding gap. Jarvis is understood to have obtained at least £14bn so far, though it remains unclear if this includes additional money for the overall defence budget. Prime Minister Keir Starmer had previously offered to increase defence spending to 2.68% of GDP by 2030.
Jarvis emphasised he would not finalise the deal “at any cost,” but acknowledged that “no single defence review or funding settlement … can erase the legacy of accumulated neglect” from previous governments. He also noted the need to map a trajectory toward Nato's long-term target of 3.5% of GDP by 2035, a conversation he hopes to have with the next prime minister, Andy Burnham, during the next Whitehall spending review.
Political Context and Transition
The Nato summit will be one of Starmer's final international engagements as prime minister. Burnham is expected to take over on 17 July if no contest arises. A source in Burnham's team expressed support for finalising the deal before the transition, stating they would rather see a resolution to the funding row, which has involved other departments taking a 1% cut to their capital budgets.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed that she had met with Jarvis and Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Richard Knighton, expressing confidence that the Dip would be published before the Ankara summit. “It will involve more money spent more effectively and will meet the scale of challenges facing our country,” she said. Starmer's spokesperson clarified that while government business continues as normal, no new major policy or spending commitments would be initiated during his final days, though the Dip is not considered a new major commitment.
Implications for Defence Spending
Jarvis aims to carry the argument for increased defence spending to the next prime minister, hoping to keep his job under Burnham. Little is known about Burnham's defence stance, but allies dismiss concerns that he might reopen any deal agreed in Starmer's final days. The MoD remains focused on securing a stable funding trajectory to meet Nato targets and address years of underinvestment.
