It has been just under five weeks since that chaotic mid-May Thursday when Wes Streeting resigned as Health Secretary, Angela Rayner declared her tax affairs settled, and Josh Simons stepped down as Makerfield’s MP to pave the way for Andy Burnham. Political limbo has persisted long enough. In the early hours of Friday morning, one of the key loose ends from the events of May 14 will be tied up as the results of today’s by-election in the south Wigan constituency are announced.
Polls open and close
Polling stations in Makerfield opened at 7am, alongside two Scottish constituencies—Broughty Ferry and Aberdeen South—also holding by-elections for Westminster seats. Voting closes at 10pm, after which vote counting for Makerfield will commence at The Edge, a venue on the banks of the River Douglas in Wigan. (Notably, The Edge hosted a Celine Dion tribute act last Saturday and will later feature tributes to the Stone Roses, Oasis, AC/DC, Elvis, Bon Jovi, Michael Jackson, and Abba—though not all on the same night.)
Results are expected around 3am to 4am. The reporter will be in Wigan at the counting room to witness the victor’s speech firsthand. However, the identity of that speaker remains unknown until the moment of announcement.
Three likely scenarios
Three plausible outcomes have been identified for Makerfield, each carrying distinct implications:
- Labour wins with more votes than Reform and Restore combined: This would be excellent news for Labour, except possibly for Sir Keir Starmer. Andy Burnham would demonstrate his ability to counter the national right-wing surge, likely securing his future in No 10.
- Labour wins but with fewer votes than Reform and Restore combined: Still positive for Burnham, though more ambiguous. Nigel Farage would face a stark warning that the threat from the right could cost his party further victories.
- Reform wins, beating Labour despite Restore: A very real possibility despite recent polling favouring Burnham. This would trigger chaos at the top of government, with Farage potentially eyeing Downing Street.
What comes next
By Friday morning, the first narrative thread from May 14 will conclude. However, more developments loom, including the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election if Burnham secures a Commons seat. Both Reform and the Green Party are expected to invest heavily in that contest. Whatever the outcome, the coming week promises to be tumultuous.
