Trump Approval Slips as Polls Reveal Warning Signs for Republicans Ahead of Midterms
A series of recent political polls indicate that public approval of Donald Trump's handling of key issues, including the US economy, immigration, and the Iran conflict, is declining, presenting warning signals for Trump-aligned Republican candidates with six months remaining until the 2026 midterm elections.
Polling Data Shows Approval Ratings in Decline
Polls conducted by Reuters-Ipsos, AP-NORC, and NBC News reveal that Trump's approval rating is hovering in the mid-30s, with figures of 36%, 35%, and 33% respectively. These numbers are near his lowest points since taking office. The AP-NORC poll, published on Monday, found that 70% of Americans describe the economy as poor and believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Specifically, Trump's approval on economic management has dropped to 30%, down from 38% in March. Additionally, 72% of respondents stated that the nation is on the wrong track, a statistic that has remained unchanged since February. Only 23% approve of his handling of the cost of living, while 76% disapprove.
Immigration Policies Could Harm Republican Candidates
A Reuters-Ipsos poll released on Wednesday highlighted that Trump's migrant deportation policies may negatively impact Republicans in the upcoming congressional elections. According to the poll, 52% of Americans are less likely to support a candidate who backs Trump's deportation approach, compared to 42% who are more likely to support such a candidate.
The division is even more pronounced among independent voters, with 57% preferring candidates who oppose Trump's deportations and 32% favoring those who support them. Trump's immigration policy approval has fallen from 50% shortly after his January 2025 inauguration to 40% currently, following clashes between enforcement agents and protesters that resulted in two deaths in Minneapolis earlier this year.
Personal Approval Hits Second-Term Low
An NBC News poll separately found that Trump's personal approval rating has reached a second-term low, with 37% of adults approving of his performance as president and 63% disapproving. Among those, 50% strongly disapprove. Despite some erosion in his base, 83% of Republicans still give Trump a positive approval rating, though this is down 4 points from earlier in the year.
On the economy, 52% of Republicans strongly approve of Trump's handling, compared to 58% previously. However, the broader challenges for Republican candidates are stark, with only one-third of Americans believing the country is on the right track, while two-thirds think it is on the wrong track.
Key Issues and Public Sentiment
The economy remains the top concern for voters, with 29% citing it as the most important issue. Other significant issues include threats to democracy at 24%, healthcare at 12%, and crime and safety at 10%. Regarding the Iran conflict, 67% disapprove of Trump's handling, with only one-third approving. This disapproval is nearly universal among Democrats and stands at 82% among independents, while 74% of Republicans approve.
A majority of 61% believe the US should not take further military action in Iran. Conversely, Trump and the Republican party find stronger support on voter ID measures, with three-quarters of Americans supporting government-issued photo ID and 61% advocating for proof-of-citizenship requirements.
These polling trends underscore the potential hurdles for Republicans as they seek to maintain their majorities in Congress during the midterm elections, with voter concerns over the economy, immigration, and foreign policy at the forefront.
