Tories Narrow Reform's Poll Lead as Badenoch Faces Approval Slump
The Conservative Party has marginally reduced the polling advantage held by Reform UK, according to the latest monthly survey from City AM and Freshwater Strategy. However, this modest gain for the Tories coincides with a significant setback for Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch, whose personal approval ratings have plummeted over the past month.
Polling Numbers Show Shifting Political Landscape
The survey of over 1,000 voters reveals that Reform UK currently commands 30 per cent of the vote share. The Conservatives have secured 22 per cent, while Labour trails with 17 per cent, marking a two-point decrease for Sir Keir Starmer's party since last month. The Greens and Liberal Democrats are tied, each holding 14 per cent of the vote share.
In a head-to-head comparison for preferred Prime Minister, Kemi Badenoch outperforms both Nigel Farage and Sir Keir Starmer. She leads the Labour leader by a notable eleven percentage points in this specific metric. This fresh polling data may provide a much-needed morale boost for the Conservative Party, which faces crucial local elections in just three months, with hundreds of council seats potentially at risk.
Badenoch's Approval Ratings Experience Sharp Decline
Despite the Tories' slight improvement in overall popularity, Kemi Badenoch's personal approval ratings have suffered a severe drop. Her net score has fallen by eight points compared to the previous month, now standing at a concerning -18. This places her behind Nigel Farage, who has a net score of -15, and significantly ahead of Sir Keir Starmer, whose rating is -42, a slight improvement from last month's -44.
The most popular political figure in the poll is Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Manchester, with a net score of seven points. This result creates an awkward contrast for Sir Keir Starmer, especially after Labour backbenchers criticised the Prime Minister for blocking Burnham from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Other Political Figures and Broader Context
Among other party leaders, Sir Ed Davey of the Liberal Democrats records the strongest net favourability rating at minus five. Labour's deputy leader, Lucy Powell, considered to be on the soft-left wing of the party, has a rating of minus six. The least popular British figure in the survey is Rachel Reeves, with a net score of -43, which may reflect public frustration over issues such as business rates and the cost of living pressures from higher food and energy prices.
The poll also notes that former US President Donald Trump is the least popular politician surveyed. This comes after figures like Starmer, Badenoch, and Farage increased their criticism of Trump following his threats to impose tariffs on the UK over its support for Greenland's sovereignty.
Election Postponements and Methodology
The upcoming local elections face uncertainty due to a reorganisation of local government and the abolition of some authorities, which may lead to the postponement of elections in several councils. Reform UK leaders have argued that such delays are unlawful, while other parties have criticised both Labour and Tory-led councils for requesting them.
Methodological note: Freshwater Strategy conducted this poll by interviewing 1,250 eligible voters in the UK, aged 18 and over, online between 30 January and 1 February 2026. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 per cent, and the data are weighted to be representative of UK voters. Freshwater Strategy are members of the British Polling Council and adhere to its rules.
