A Pollster's Nightmare: The High-Stakes Three-Way Battle for Gorton and Denton
Labour is confronting one of its most formidable electoral challenges in years as it struggles to maintain its 13,000-vote majority in the Gorton and Denton constituency. The retirement of Andrew Gwynne following the Trigger Me Timbers WhatsApp scandal has created a volatile political landscape where three parties now harbour realistic ambitions of victory.
The Unpredictable Contest That Could Reshape Manchester Politics
Westminster byelections frequently deliver dramatic results, but the contest for Gorton and Denton stands out as particularly unpredictable. With polling day scheduled for 26 February, the Green party has surprisingly emerged as the bookmakers' favourite, while Reform UK hopes to replicate its narrow success in Runcorn and Helsby where it won by just six votes through exploiting divisions on the left.
Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia, who arrived in Britain from Greece in 1995, has expressed profound anger about Reform UK's involvement in the campaign. "How dare they come here and spread this division?" she demanded during an emotional interview. "For them, this is a show. For me, this is my community. This is my people."
The Green Party's Remarkable Ascent
The Green party's transformation from distant challenger to frontrunner represents one of the most remarkable developments in this contest. Despite having no councillors in the constituency and finishing 14,000 votes behind Labour in 2024, the party has mobilised an enthusiastic volunteer army that has travelled from Birmingham, Barnsley and Belper to distribute 40,000 leaflets in a single day.
Their candidate, 34-year-old plumber Hannah Spencer, has become something of a local celebrity since joining the Green party just three years ago. Originally from Bolton, Spencer represents the party's new eco-populist direction, focusing her campaign on cost of living concerns, housing issues and crime rather than exclusively environmental matters.
"He's just been bussed in," Spencer said of her Reform UK opponent Matt Goodwin, an academic turned GB News presenter. "He's just a TV presenter who wants to further his own career, and I've proved that I will work."
Strategic Alliances and Divided Loyalties
The political mathematics of the constituency reveals why this contest remains so finely balanced. Professor Robert Ford of the University of Manchester notes that for every vote on the Denton side, which tends to be more receptive to Reform UK's messaging, there are two votes in the larger, more diverse and left-leaning Manchester portion of the constituency.
In 2024, nearly 80% of voters supported parties on the left, making vote-splitting between Labour and the Greens the most plausible path to victory for Reform UK. This dynamic has prompted significant strategic manoeuvring, with George Galloway's Workers party and Jeremy Corbyn's Your Party both encouraging their supporters to back the Green candidate.
Lucy Powell, Labour's deputy leader and MP for neighbouring Manchester Central, disputes the notion that pro-Palestinian sentiment will automatically benefit the Greens. "I went to a mosque the other day and I was treated like a Hollywood star," she observed. "People would have just turned their backs to me two years ago."
Voter Perspectives in a Changing Political Landscape
Among local residents, opinions reflect the complex calculations facing voters. Ghulam Ghaus, a 73-year-old Labour member working in Mount Auto Parts in Longsight, plans to vote for the party out of familiarity rather than enthusiasm. "The Green party have good policies but they're not so well known," he noted.
Catherine O'Connor, a 66-year-old retired cleaner, represents another significant voting bloc. Despite friends encouraging her to support Reform UK, she finds their immigration policies unacceptable. "We're a multicultural country - we've got to get on with one another," she explained, revealing her intention to switch from Labour to the Greens.
Perhaps most telling is the household division between Alf and Jo Warrender in Denton. While Alf plans to vote Reform UK as the only party he believes can defeat Labour, his wife Jo has already committed to supporting Hannah Spencer, taking a Green party poster for their front window.
The National Implications of a Local Contest
This byelection carries significance far beyond Greater Manchester's boundaries. With Keir Starmer's government facing criticism over Peter Mandelson's links to Jeffrey Epstein, a Labour defeat on 26 February could prompt renewed calls for leadership change. The contest also tests whether the Green party can translate its growing popularity into parliamentary representation outside its traditional East Anglian strongholds.
As Professor Ford summarised: "Three parties could win, and each can tell a plausible story now about how they might do it." This uncertainty, combined with the high stakes for all involved, makes Gorton and Denton what he describes as "a pollster's nightmare" - a contest that could redefine political expectations in one of Labour's historic heartlands.
