Texas Primaries Test Political Appetite in Trump Era as High-Stakes Senate Race Unfolds
The first votes of the 2026 midterm election cycle will be cast on Tuesday in Texas, where a pair of high-stakes U.S. Senate primaries will test both political parties' appetite for change during the Trump era. Voters across the state will decide their nominees for a critical Senate seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn, along with several key congressional contests that have been reshaped by a mid-decade gerrymander sought by Donald Trump to preserve the GOP's fragile House majority.
Republican Battle: MAGA Movement Versus Old-Guard Conservatism
In the Republican Senate primary, four-term incumbent John Cornyn faces a formidable challenge from Ken Paxton, the state's scandal-plagued attorney general and a conservative culture warrior. Cornyn, 74, has emphasized his seniority and legislative record, which he defends as closely aligned with the president's agenda. By contrast, Paxton, 64, has positioned himself as MAGA's vanguard in Texas, willing to battle both Democrats and establishment Republicans.
Political advertising spending has surpassed $122 million according to AdImpact data, making this the most expensive Senate primary on record. The vast majority of these funds are being deployed to help Cornyn fend off Paxton's challenge. A third candidate, two-term Republican congressman Wesley Hunt, is also seeking the nomination and is expected to pull enough votes to potentially force a runoff in late May if neither Cornyn nor Paxton captures more than 50% of the vote.
Democratic Contest: Progressive Powerhouses With Competing Theories
On the Democratic side, state representative James Talarico has crisscrossed deep-red counties that voted for Trump, preaching what he calls a "politics of love" that roots progressive policy in Christian teachings. The 36-year-old former middle school teacher and current seminary student argues that the central divide in American politics is "not left versus right" but "top versus bottom," contending that Democrats can rebuild trust in rural and suburban communities without abandoning core values.
He faces Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, a firebrand progressive whose unsparing attacks on Trump and Republicans have earned her a starring role in the resistance movement to his second term. Crockett, 44, entered the race in December just before the filing deadline, casting herself as a "proven fighter" who "drives the president crazy." She contends that high turnout among young voters and voters of color—not ideological moderation—represents the key to winning statewide in Texas.
Broader Implications for Both Parties
The fiercely competitive races have left Democrats unusually hopeful about their chances in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, while Republicans fret they could lose a seat once viewed as safely red. Early voting has soared, particularly on the Democratic side, indicating heightened engagement across the political spectrum.
The Democratic contest underlines a central debate that has animated the party since Trump's 2016 victory: whether to win by "doubling down" on their base and its fury with Trump's presidency, or by courting independents and swing voters disenchanted with partisanship and the political status quo.
Trump's Role and Down-Ballot Contests
Trump remains a significant wildcard in the Senate race, which has pitted his base against Washington Republicans who have warned that Paxton would be a uniquely vulnerable candidate due to years of legal and ethical scandals, including impeachment by his own party—though he was ultimately acquitted in the Senate.
Texas voters are also casting ballots for a slate of other federal, state, and local offices. As a result of redistricting, two sitting members of Congress are squaring off in the primary for congressional district 18, creating what has become a referendum on generational change. Representative Christian Menefee, 37, who is just weeks into his first term, now faces Representative Al Green, 78, who has served for more than two decades.
On the Republican side, Representative Dan Crenshaw faces a right-wing challenge from state representative Steve Toth in the second congressional district, while Congressman Tony Gonzales is confronting calls for his resignation from fellow Republicans following allegations of an affair with a former staffer who later died by suicide. Gonzales has resisted these resignation demands.
Tuesday's election will hardly be the final word, but as polls open in the nation's second-largest state, Democrats will be monitoring political currents closely as they target Republican-held Senate seats in other states from Alaska to Maine. Whether Democrats seriously contest the Texas Senate race may ultimately depend on the outcome of the Republican primary, which could extend to a late May runoff.
