Sussan Ley Confronts Leadership Challenge Amid Coalition Crisis
Opposition Leader Sussan Ley is currently facing a determined campaign from right-wing members within the Liberal Party who are seeking to end her leadership. This internal challenge comes at a critical juncture as Ley prepares to announce a Liberal-only frontbench, formally cementing the breakdown of the Coalition with the Nationals.
Growing Confidence Among Ley Allies
Despite the mounting pressure, allies of Sussan Ley are expressing increasing confidence that she will not face a leadership spill when parliament reconvenes next week. Key conservative figures who might challenge her, including Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor, have yet to publicly declare their intentions, creating uncertainty within the party's right faction.
One senior Liberal MP issued a stark warning to colleagues involved in plotting against Ley, stating that the party's credibility would be "in tatters" if it appeared to be removing its first female leader at the behest of the Nationals. This sentiment reflects broader support within the party for Ley's decision to sack three Nationals senators who crossed the floor on Labor's hate speech legislation.
The Coalition Breakdown and Its Consequences
The political crisis was triggered when Nationals leader David Littleproud declared the Coalition "untenable" under Ley's leadership following the dismissal of the senators. This prompted the Nationals to withdraw from the frontbench, marking the second collapse of the Coalition arrangement within just eight months.
Many Liberals, including some who have been critical of Ley's overall leadership, have rallied behind her actions regarding the Nationals. They place responsibility for the Coalition's disintegration squarely on Littleproud, viewing the Nationals' breach of shadow cabinet solidarity as part of a troubling pattern rather than an isolated incident.
Long-Term Implications for Party Unity
Senior Liberals are increasingly skeptical about the prospects of reuniting with the Nationals in the foreseeable future, particularly while Littleproud remains as leader. They point to previous instances where the Nationals have taken independent policy positions, such as opposing the Indigenous voice to parliament referendum and abandoning net zero emissions targets, which have consistently pressured the Liberals into difficult positions.
Liberal frontbencher Tim Wilson reinforced this perspective, telling media outlets that it was "hard to see" the Coalition reforming while Littleproud leads the Nationals. Former MP Jason Falinski added that maintaining the Coalition arrangement had become unworkable given the Nationals' preoccupation with countering the threat from Pauline Hanson's One Nation party.
Leadership Dynamics and Frontbench Plans
Amid speculation about a potential leadership spill as early as Monday, senior Liberal sources confirm that Ley is proceeding with plans to announce a Liberal-only shadow ministry before parliament resumes. The announcement is expected after Thursday's memorial service for former Liberal MP Katie Allen, with possible approaches including redistributing the Nationals' portfolios among existing Liberal frontbenchers or promoting new MPs to the frontbench.
Meanwhile, momentum to oust Ley appears to have stalled as Hastie and Taylor have failed to agree on which of them would represent the right faction in any leadership contest. Hastie's supporters believe he has sufficient backing to defeat Ley, but Taylor, who narrowly lost to Ley in the post-election leadership ballot, is reportedly unwilling to step aside for his younger colleague.
Supporters of Ley are growing more confident that a challenge will not materialise next week, citing both internal support for her handling of the Nationals split and disorganisation among those plotting against her. As one MP succinctly put it: "It is just not happening."
