New official projections indicate that the prison population in England and Wales will reach the symbolic 100,000 mark a full year later than previously anticipated.
Revised Projections and Key Figures
According to the latest Ministry of Justice data, published on Thursday 4 December 2025, the number of inmates across the two nations is forecast to reach between 98,000 and 103,600 by March 2030. The central, most likely estimate is 100,600 prisoners.
This revised timeline pushes the milestone back by twelve months from last year's projection, which had forecast a central figure of 100,800 prisoners by March 2029. The ministry attributed the underlying growth to a sustained rise in police charges, more prosecutions, increased court cases, and a higher number of offenders being recalled to custody.
Impact of Emergency Measures
However, the department noted that the population will be approximately 2,400 lower in September 2028 than earlier predictions. This reduction is credited to recent policy interventions, most notably the emergency early release scheme enacted to tackle severe overcrowding.
Since last September, tens of thousands of prisoners have been freed ahead of schedule. By the end of June this year, nearly 40,000 offenders in England and Wales had been released under this government initiative.
Current figures show the pressure has eased slightly from its peak. At the start of December 2025, the prison population stood at 87,063, which is 1,458 fewer than the record high of 88,521 seen in September 2024.
Uncertain Future and Legislative Reforms
The Ministry of Justice cautioned that its projections, while representing the best available evidence, are subject to considerable uncertainty. Future crime trends and police charging activity will significantly influence the volume of cases entering the courts.
Furthermore, the potential impact of the Sentencing Bill, currently progressing through Parliament, is not included in these forecasts as it is not yet law. The proposed reforms aim to create a long-term solution to the capacity crisis by introducing an earned release scheme. This would allow well-behaved prisoners to be freed earlier, while those who break rules could serve longer sentences. These changes are expected to come into force next year.
Ministers have also pledged to deliver 14,000 new prison places by 2031. The acute strain on the system has been highlighted by several high-profile mistaken releases, including that of Hadush Kebatu, the deported migrant whose arrest sparked protests in Epping, Essex. Justice Secretary David Lammy recently admitted there was a mountain to climb to resolve the prison crisis.
