One Nation Achieves Record Polling High Amid Political Turmoil
The latest Guardian Essential poll has delivered a seismic shift in Australian political sentiment, with Pauline Hanson's One Nation party surging to a record-high primary vote of 22%. This represents a dramatic five-point increase from December's figure of 17%, underscoring the party's growing influence as the Coalition grapples with internal chaos and rising social tensions across the nation.
Coalition Disarray Fuels One Nation's Ascent
One Nation's remarkable polling performance appears directly linked to the ongoing fragmentation within the Liberal-National Coalition. The party's rising numbers, particularly in regional and rural seats traditionally held by the Coalition, have contributed significantly to the growing unrest and alarm within opposition ranks. This environment facilitated the Nationals' recent decision to split from the Liberals and has intensified leadership jostling among figures like Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor.
Adding to One Nation's momentum was last month's recruitment of Nationals turncoat Barnaby Joyce, with Coalition sources speculating that further defections from Nationals members could follow. Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley faces her own challenges, with the Essential poll recording her approval rating at 30% and disapproval at 47% - a decline from December's 34-43 respectively. Ley confronts a campaign from the Liberal right faction to end her leadership, with speculation about a potential spill as early as next week.
Labor's Mixed Polling Results and Bondi Response
While One Nation celebrates its surge, the Labor government recorded a primary vote of 31% in the same poll - a three-point drop from last month's 34% and below the 34.6% achieved at the May election. The Liberal-National Coalition primary vote stood at 25%, with the Greens polling at 9%.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's personal approval ratings have continued their downward trajectory, with 39% approval and 53% disapproval recorded - a decline from December's 43-45 respectively. When asked specifically about Albanese's handling of issues arising from the Bondi terror attack, only 36% approved of his performance while 55% disapproved.
Despite this criticism of leadership, Australians demonstrated strong support for the government's legislative response to the Bondi shooting. The poll revealed that 73% backed banning public display of terrorist symbols, 63% approved of stronger gun laws, 62% supported more police powers to curb protests, and 60% endorsed new laws on hate speech. A Commonwealth royal commission into antisemitism was supported by 56% of respondents.
Social Cohesion Concerns Emerge Strongly
The Guardian Essential poll, conducted among 1,022 Australians between Tuesday and Friday last week, revealed deepening concerns about social cohesion. A significant 70% of respondents believed there was tension between people of different races and nationalities in Australia, while 69% thought people were scared to express their beliefs for fear of being labelled racist.
Only 38% believed Australia was less racist than in the past - a four-point drop from when this question was last asked in September 2025. Meanwhile, 35% reported that a family member had experienced racism (up 5 points since September), and 33% said they had personally experienced racism (also up 5 points since September).
These findings come as other polling organisations corroborate One Nation's rising influence. This week, Demos recorded a 24% primary vote for Hanson's party, while last week's Newspoll recorded 22% and Resolve put One Nation at 18%.
The political landscape appears increasingly fragmented, with One Nation's record polling demonstrating how traditional party loyalties are being tested by coalition instability and growing social divisions. As both major party leaders face declining personal approval ratings, the poll suggests Australians are seeking alternatives while simultaneously demanding strong governmental responses to security and social cohesion challenges.
