One Nation's Poll Surge Meets Historical Reality Check
Pauline Hanson's One Nation party is experiencing a remarkable surge in national opinion polls, with recent surveys placing its primary vote as high as 22%—triple its result at the 2025 election and just three points behind the Coalition. This dramatic climb has positioned the party ahead of the Coalition in some polls for the first time, particularly in rural seats where YouGov data shows One Nation leading by 35% to 21% on primary votes.
The Queensland Precedent: A Cautionary Tale
Despite current polling optimism, history provides a sobering counterpoint. In October 2017, when then Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk called a snap election, One Nation was riding high in opinion polls with support north of 20%. Major parties genuinely feared voters might hand Hanson's party the balance of power in state parliament.
Yet when the campaign proper began, things quickly went to custard for One Nation. Many candidates were revealed to have disqualifying features, and the leader struggled under intensified media scrutiny. Despite securing 13% of the vote and driving a battler bus around the state, the party won just one seat—fewer than Bob Katter's party—and lost half its vote at the subsequent election.
The Structural Challenges of Scaling Up
Political strategists note that translating poll numbers into parliamentary seats presents significant hurdles for minor parties. As election analyst Antony Green observed this week, while One Nation's high national vote suggests support exceeding 35% in some rural seats, winning requires effective preference flows—something difficult to guarantee as most voters don't follow how-to-vote cards line by line.
Nationals MP Colin Boyce highlighted this challenge on ABC radio, noting it's considerably easier for Hanson and colleagues to win Senate seats with quotas around 14% than to navigate preferential voting in lower house contests. Campaigns are expensive and complex, and a party primarily based in Queensland with Senate experience may struggle to properly vet candidates and organise volunteer infrastructure to compete with established Liberal and Labor machines.
Hanson's Resilience and Current Momentum
Approaching three decades in public life, Hanson has evolved from what strategist Lynton Crosby once called the accidental tourist of Australian politics into one of its great survivors. Her mix of grievance politics and media stunts keeps her consistently in headlines, while her social media strategy—featuring politically incorrect satire and Canberra clips—resonates with voters who feel disconnected from traditional politics.
The party has doubled its representation since last year's poll and secured the high-profile defection of former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce in December. With support from mining magnate Gina Rinehart and growing business backing, One Nation appears better funded heading toward the next federal election due in early 2028.
Immigration Debate Plays to Traditional Strengths
Current political dynamics may favour Hanson's instincts. Growing economic anxiety and renewed debate about immigration levels—driven by the Coalition—play directly to One Nation's traditional messaging. Scanlon Foundation data shows the proportion of Australians believing immigration is too high jumped from 24% in 2022 to 51% last year, creating fertile ground for Hanson's rhetoric.
Hanson herself acknowledges the challenge, stating last month that the party must continue to earn the growing support and trust of mainstream voters. Her chief-of-staff James Ashby has promised an announcement to shock the nation next week, including more big names joining the party's ranks.
The Path Forward: Replicating Past Success
To achieve breakthrough results, Hanson will likely attempt to replicate her most successful campaign: the 1998 Queensland state election when One Nation elected 11 MPs following her controversial maiden speech warning Australia was in danger of being swamped by Asians. With the political mainstream fragmenting and traditional Coalition voters appearing increasingly disaffected, the conditions might seem favourable.
Yet as the Queensland experience demonstrates, poll numbers don't always translate to parliamentary seats. While One Nation's current surge reflects genuine voter dissatisfaction, converting that sentiment into electoral success requires navigating preferential voting, managing candidate quality, and withstanding the intense scrutiny that comes with being a serious political contender—challenges that have historically proven difficult for the party to overcome.
