Downing Street has initiated an unprecedented operation to shield Prime Minister Keir Starmer from a potential leadership challenge, as concerns mount among his closest allies about his vulnerability following the upcoming budget.
Bunker mentality grips Number 10
Senior political aides to Starmer have issued stark warnings that any attempt to remove the prime minister over declining poll ratings would represent a "reckless" and "dangerous" move that could destabilise financial markets, damage international relationships, and fracture the Labour party.
They have emphatically stated that Starmer would contest any leadership challenge that emerges, whether immediately after the budget or, more likely, following potential defeats in the May local elections.
The political tension escalated dramatically after Number 10 sources expressed growing anxiety about speculation that Health Secretary Wes Streeting might be preparing an imminent coup against the prime minister - allegations that Streeting has vehemently denied.
Growing discontent among Labour MPs
In a clear indication of how nervous some in Downing Street have become about Starmer's position, senior figures claimed they had received information suggesting Streeting had secured support from 50 frontbenchers willing to resign if the budget fails to land well and the prime minister refuses to step aside.
Cabinet ministers have revealed to the Guardian that Streeting is merely one of several Labour figures actively positioning themselves for a leadership contest should a vacancy arise, though none are expected to move against Starmer immediately.
Many interpret the Downing Street intervention as a "stop Wes" strategy designed to deter potential leadership rivals, who MPs say include Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood, and even Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband.
One source close to the situation commented: "No 10 has gone into full bunker mode, turning on their most loyal cabinet members for absolutely no reason. A circular firing squad won't help the government out of the hole we're in."
Warnings of catastrophic consequences
The warnings from Starmer's team also target anxious Labour MPs who have expressed increasing concern about broken manifesto pledges on tax, the possibility of significant losses in May's elections, and doubts about Starmer's ability to deliver meaningful change and secure a second general election victory.
Several of the prime minister's closest allies have emphasised that any attempt to remove him would be incredibly reckless.
They confirmed that Starmer would vigorously fight any leadership contest to defend his position. "Keir will not stand aside at this point, for Wes or anybody else," one ally stated firmly.
Another added: "The idea he'd walk away if somebody said the budget hadn't landed well is nonsense." They emphasised Starmer's determination to continue fighting for national change despite the numerous challenges facing the government.
The first senior ally warned: "We have a challenging situation in the Parliamentary Labour Party. We know everything is a bit febrile and everybody is concerned. But the consequences of a leadership challenge would be enormous and people need to remember that."
"If you chuck a leadership challenge in just 18 months into government you'd destabilise the markets, our allies and I don't think the public would forgive us."
They highlighted the unprecedented nature of such a move, noting that no Labour prime minister has ever been forced out by their own MPs, and warned that "to do so at this point in the cycle would be the height of irresponsibility. The party would not recover for a generation."
A second senior Number 10 source echoed these concerns: "Lots of MPs are concerned about where we are but some are going so far as to think it's a good idea to destabilise the party ahead of, or in the immediate aftermath of, the budget. That's really risky."
They added: "This is about them feeling we're behind in the polls and that they need to do something. But it would be a dangerous thing to do – very destabilising for the party, very reckless."
A third Downing Street source provided a stark assessment: "Keir doesn't realise this is existential for him. But it's astonishing that MPs think that ousting him might be an answer – the public will just think we're no different from the last lot."
Leadership ambitions surface
Cabinet ministers believe Downing Street aims to deliver a clear warning to Labour politicians with leadership ambitions to refrain from acting against the prime minister.
One cabinet minister observed: "Wes is obviously on manoeuvres but it's not about ousting Keir, it's about putting himself in pole position if a vacancy should come about. He's not the only one. But we've all seen the polling and are worried that we're about to hand the country to Reform."
They expressed scepticism about whether any replacement for Starmer could significantly improve the party's position, particularly given the chaos that would inevitably follow a leadership change.
Beyond Streeting, other figures with perceived leadership ambitions include Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who previously challenged Starmer's approach, and Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, though she might prefer to act as kingmaker rather than candidate.
An ally of Streeting dismissed the coup speculation as "a kite-flying exercise from a paranoid No 10 who don't talk to their own MPs." They noted the political wisdom that "whoever is seen to be wielding the knife won't wear the crown" and suggested that significant action is more likely if May's elections prove disastrous.
They criticised Downing Street's "neurotic" behaviour, attributing it to isolation and the appointment of "inexperienced people in the whip's office which nobody will talk to."
A spokesperson for Streeting, who was preparing to deliver a speech to NHS Providers, described the plotting allegations as "categorically untrue".
They emphasised: "Wes's focus has entirely been on cutting waiting lists for the first time in 15 years, recruiting 2,500 more GPs, and rebuilding the NHS that saved his life."
Nevertheless, Streeting has increasingly become a complicating factor for Starmer since the election, in which he nearly lost his seat to a pro-Gaza independent. He has reportedly voiced opposition in cabinet meetings regarding the government's approaches to welfare, digital ID, and Gaza policy.
As one of Labour's most effective communicators, Streeting has distanced himself from the party's right wing on key issues, publicly criticising Starmer's "island of strangers" speech and attempts to reduce winter fuel payments and welfare support as mistakes.
