Japan's Ruling Conservatives Head for Landslide Election Victory
Exit polls from Japan's lower house elections indicate a dramatic strengthening of power for the country's conservative governing party, with projections pointing toward a landslide victory that will be interpreted as an early public endorsement of new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Projected Seat Gains for Ruling Coalition
According to exit polls conducted by the public broadcaster NHK, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is projected to win between 274 and 328 seats out of a total of 465 in Japan's lower house. This figure comfortably exceeds the 233 seats required to regain the majority the party lost in 2024. When combined with seats expected to be secured by its junior coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, the ruling coalition could achieve between 302 and 366 seats, according to NHK's projections.
Early Test for New Prime Minister
The elections, held on a freezing day when many parts of the country were again hit by heavy snow and blizzard conditions, represent the first major electoral test for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi, who called the snap election soon after becoming Japan's first female prime minister last autumn, had previously vowed to resign if her coalition failed to secure a simple majority.
The projected victory comes despite concerns over Takaichi's management of Japan's public finances and her ability to navigate diplomatic tensions with China regarding Taiwan. Takaichi sought to appeal to voters with a substantial $135 billion stimulus package aimed at easing the cost-of-living crisis, later promising to suspend the 8% consumption tax on food for two years—a move that would represent a ¥5 trillion ($30 billion) annual revenue loss.
Financial Markets and Diplomatic Challenges
These ambitious spending plans have unsettled financial markets and contributed to currency volatility, prompting questions from commentators given that Japan's debt exceeds twice the size of its GDP—the heaviest debt burden of any advanced economy.
Diplomatically, Takaichi sparked a significant row with Beijing in November when she suggested Japan could become involved militarily should China attempt to invade Taiwan. This remark led China to urge tourists to avoid Japan and young people not to study there, citing safety concerns. The dispute has disrupted cultural exchanges and even ended decades of panda diplomacy between the two nations.
However, Takaichi's refusal to withdraw her remarks appears to have resonated with many voters, according to political observers. Margarita Estévez-Abe, an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, suggested that Sunday's election victory could provide Takaichi with political space to repair damage to Sino-Japanese relations.
Weather Conditions and Voter Turnout
The election took place under challenging weather conditions, with blizzards in some regions making visiting polling stations—in the first mid-winter election for 35 years—a test of endurance for many voters. The severe weather caused widespread disruption, halting services on dozens of train lines and forcing the cancellation of 230 domestic flights, according to Japan's transport ministry.
These conditions are expected to contribute to a low voter turnout. With four hours remaining before polls closed, turnout stood at 21.6%—2.65 percentage points lower than at the same time during the 2024 lower house election, according to figures cited by the Nikkei business newspaper from the internal affairs ministry.
Political Context and Opposition Challenges
Takaichi's personal popularity, particularly among younger voters, has transformed the LDP's fortunes since she won the race to succeed Shigeru Ishiba as party president in October. Under Ishiba's leadership, the LDP and its then coalition partner Komeito lost their majorities in both houses of parliament amid public anger over a slush fund scandal and rising living costs.
The party, which has governed Japan for most of the past seventy years, benefited from a fractured and uninspiring opposition. The main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance—formed just weeks before the election by two existing parties—was expected to suffer heavy losses on Sunday, leaving questions hanging over its future viability.
Implications of the Election Results
The final vote count will not be known until late on Sunday, but if the Takaichi-led coalition achieves an absolute majority of 261 seats, it will control parliamentary committees, making it significantly easier to pass budget legislation and other key measures. A super-majority of 310 seats would allow the coalition to override the upper house, where the LDP-led alliance lost its majority in July last year.
Seiji Inada, managing director at the consultancy FGS Global, noted that if Takaichi won decisively, she would have greater political room to follow through on key commitments including consumption-tax cuts. However, he warned that markets could react swiftly and negatively to such moves, potentially putting renewed pressure on the yen.
Despite the challenging conditions, some voters remained determined to participate. Kazushige Cho, a 54-year-old teacher, said he had been resolved to vote for the LDP despite the atrocious weather in his region, where snow had reached depths exceeding two metres. "She has shown strong leadership and pushes various policies forward," Cho remarked outside a polling station in Niigata prefecture. "I think things could turn out quite well."
