The official COVID-19 inquiry has unveiled a devastating assessment of the UK government's handling of the pandemic, pinpointing a catastrophic delay in imposing the first lockdown that resulted in tens of thousands of preventable deaths.
The Damning Statistic: 23,000 Lives Lost
Baroness Heather Hallett, the chair of the inquiry, highlighted one particularly shocking figure: 23,000. This is the estimated number of deaths that could have been avoided if then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson had instituted a national lockdown on 16 March 2020, mirroring actions taken in Italy, Spain, and France, instead of waiting another week.
During this critical period, the government was described as 'making it up as they went along'. Advisers stated that Mr Johnson was 'trolleying' – swerving unpredictably between doomsday scenarios and a desire to maintain business as usual, including encouraging handshakes.
A Greater Failure: Repeating the Mistake
While the initial delay was catastrophic, an even greater failure occurred six months later. By the autumn of 2020, the government and its scientific advisers understood the virus far better. The UK had endured one lockdown, and authorities knew which vulnerable groups needed protection and how the public would likely behave.
Despite this knowledge, the government descended into chaos. Instead of acting decisively to curb the virus's spread, it launched policies like the 'Eat Out to Help Out' scheme and sent confused messages about returning to offices. This indecision was famously mocked by comedian Matt Lucas, who satirised the Prime Minister's unclear communications.
When scientific advisers recommended a short, sharp lockdown during the autumn half-term, the government rejected the advice. This led to the introduction of a confusing and largely ineffective 'tier' system, a form of lockdown-lite that failed to control case numbers.
The Deadly Consequences of Indecision
The failure to act decisively in the autumn had dire consequences. As winter set in and the more transmissible Alpha (Kent) variant emerged, cases rose precipitously, forcing another draconian lockdown in January 2021.
One insider described the government's approach to the inquiry as a 'roller-coaster' response, characterised by chaotic, half-baked measures that ultimately made more severe interventions necessary.
This period, known as the 'second wave', between December 2020 and February 2021, killed 65,000 people. Analysis presented to the inquiry concluded that 27,000 of these deaths might have been avoided or delayed with earlier, tougher action.
This cycle of indecision not only devastated the economy and harmed the mental health of the most vulnerable but, most damningly, cost the most lives. It is a key reason why the UK ended up with some of the highest COVID mortality rates in the developed world, with over 220,000 deaths recorded during the pandemic.
While some question the purpose of a £200m inquiry, its defenders argue that it is essential for the families of the deceased to have all the evidence 'dragged into the light', especially when compared to the £35bn cost of the failed test and trace programme.
