The Trump administration has intensified efforts to cast doubt on the integrity of US elections, prompting voting experts to express concern that the president may declare a national emergency to exert greater control over November's midterm elections. A series of documents released this summer, including disputed analyses of alleged noncitizen voting and historical intelligence memos, have fueled these fears and sparked hope among election deniers.
Trump's speech and Bannon's prediction
In a primetime television address in July, Trump repeated his false claim that the 2020 presidential election, which he lost to Joe Biden, was stolen, and asserted that US elections are vulnerable to foreign manipulation. Following the speech, Steve Bannon, Trump's former political strategist, predicted on his War Room video podcast on 29 July that the president would declare a state of emergency on national security grounds to "protect" elections. "Take your No 2 pencil out," Bannon said. "It's coming. It's coming. Just block the last week of August out. It's coming."
When asked by rightwing broadcaster Wayne Allyn Root if he would "declare a national security emergency for elections," Trump did not dismiss the idea. "Let me just say, stranger things have happened, OK?" the president told Real America's Voice. "I'll leave it at that."
Experts warn of constitutional limits
Experts note that a national emergency declaration would not override constitutional restrictions on executive power over election administration, and no president has ever attempted such a move. Aria Branch, a partner at the Elias Law Group who led a lawsuit blocking Trump's previous executive orders on election administration, said the administration is "trying to lay the groundwork to declare some sort of emergency to nationalize elections. I think the president is looking for any opportunity to do that."
Santiago Mayer, president of Voters of Tomorrow, a gen Z-led voter advocacy organization, said, "I mean, listen, I think it is quite obvious that the man is losing his grip in reality, so I think we need to be prepared for everything. We have spent a long time thinking and preparing for any eventuality and anything that he might attempt. I think our focus at the end of the day is to turn out enough voters where, no matter what he pulls, it won't succeed."
Administration's election integrity releases
The White House and federal agencies have released a string of documents this summer, including declassified intelligence memos from a "Government Transparency Task Force" composed of members from the office of the director of national intelligence, the National Security Agency, the Central Intelligence Agency, and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The first tranche described electronic voting machine vulnerabilities, foreign access to state voter registration data, and foreign digital manipulation strategies, though much was already public and included an intelligence assessment finding no evidence Beijing altered the 2020 vote.
In July, DHS released an analysis arguing that 278,000 noncitizens are registered to vote in federal elections, without revealing methodology or confidence levels. The tool used to flag noncitizens is known to be inaccurate. On Tuesday, the US Census Bureau released a brief claiming it had identified 24,000 noncitizens voting in the 2020 election in a preliminary match of 128m records, but did not reveal methodology and faced sharp criticism.
David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, said, "This alleged analysis based on census data fails the laugh test. The administration does not provide a sufficient explanation of how it arrived at these numbers – and for good reason." Branch added, "Noncitizen voting in our elections is just not a widespread problem … All of the fear and narrative around that issue is just completely unfounded, and it's really just to stoke fear and lay the groundwork for future action."
Political and legal responses
Democratic members of Congress have been wargaming strategies to respond to executive provocations, considering scenarios such as AI-generated disinformation videos and ICE agents being dispatched to polls. Ty Cobb, a former White House attorney and now a sharp Trump critic, told PBS that ICE agents at polls is "a virtual certainty," and questioned whether National Guard officers would also be present. "Anything to intimidate minority voters, particularly immigrant voters, and also I think anything that allows them to try to seize voting machines, as Trump wanted to do in 2020, but [then-attorney general] Bill Barr explained to him there was just no basis for it."
The White House did not rule out an executive order declaring a national emergency on elections, with spokesperson Lauren Bis saying, "Extreme liberal Democrats are keeping Americans from having full confidence in their elections by refusing to vote for the Save America Act. The American people overwhelmingly support this commonsense legislation that ensures Americans, and Americans only, decide our elections. President Trump is absolutely right: we fix this now, or we lose our country." The Save America Act would require states to submit voter rolls to federal inspection, give DHS power to de-register anyone deemed ineligible, curtail mail-in voting, and require documentary proof of citizenship and photo IDs to vote.
Branch emphasized the constitutional clarity on election administration, stating, "The constitution is extremely clear on this, and the founders recognized the risk of centralizing power over elections in the executive branch. Very helpful, in terms of litigation to push back on these types of efforts."
