Online slots and casino games were originally intended to be the key targets of new affordability checks, but the implementation has sparked widespread concern. Even James Noyes, one of the initial proponents, has called for a pause. Stuart Andrew MP, former gambling minister and also a supporter, agrees. The British Horseracing Authority warns that the checks could cost the industry £250 million annually as punters refuse to provide personal financial information and shift to the unregulated black market.
At a board meeting scheduled for Thursday, the Gambling Commission is expected to ignore the rising tide of concern and rubber-stamp the formal introduction of financial risk assessments. Tens of thousands, conceivably hundreds of thousands, of punters with licensed UK firms could soon be required to provide documentation on salary or assets before they can continue to gamble, despite initial promises that the process would be frictionless for all but a minority.
Racing Industry at Risk
This is a moment of considerable threat for Britain's racing industry, with the potential to inflict irreparable damage if punters stop betting or turn to the black market. Evidence from the Gambling Commission's annual surveys shows that betting on racing is one of the safest gambling products on the market. Noyes has been clear that online slots and casino games – several times more likely to be associated with problem gambling – were always intended to be the main target of checks when the concept was initially proposed.
The how and why of the journey to this point is extended and not a little confused, and racing should accept at least a little of the blame. Since the Blair government's Gambling Act in 2005, which legitimised £100-a-spin roulette machines in high-street betting shops, fixed-margin gaming has steadily grown to dominate the gambling conglomerates' balance sheets. Online gambling has also grown to dominate the sector, allowing operators to cross-promote casino and slots, which carry zero risk for the operator, to customers who were recruited via racing and sports betting.
Operators have also driven thousands of punters to the black market by restricting their bets or closing their accounts. While this was going on for much of the past 20 years, racing, for the most part, simply looked the other way.
Why Checks Were Proposed
In addition to the history, it is also important to remember why checks were proposed in the first place. Problem gambling can have devastating consequences for addicts and those around them. Research has shown that 40% of gamblers with a Problem Gambling Severity Index score of 8 or above – indicating a high level of risk – report experiencing at least one severe consequence of their gambling, including relationship breakdown or committing a crime, over the previous 12 months. At the same time, just 20% in this group have sought help from gambling support services in the same period.
The intention of checks is to identify those who are at the greatest risk of harm and ensure, wherever possible, they get the help they need. Reducing the figure of 80% who do not seek help is an urgent priority, and no form of gambling – even the weekly lottery draw – is entirely safe.
But a problem with checks from racing's perspective is that they are triggered solely by spend, with no additional markers such as frequency or duration. This might be appropriate for repetitive, fixed-margin gaming, but it is wholly inappropriate as a measure of possible harm in betting, which has an entirely different profile in terms of profit, loss and participation. Checks designed for gaming products will, almost by definition, produce significant numbers of false-positives when applied to betting.
Blurring the Lines
The gambling industry has been doing its best to blur the division between gaming and betting for decades. The B in FOBTs, the machines that turned betting shops into casinos, stands for betting, when nothing could be further from the truth. Again, racing played along with this for years, until the recent – successful – campaign to see off the harmonisation of gambling taxes forged a new and positive alliance between the sport and many leading campaigners for gambling reform.
You would hope the Gambling Commission would appreciate the structural differences between betting and casino gaming. Yet a nagging concern throughout this very extended process, which started during the last government and seems set to conclude two years into the next, has been the extent to which the regulator has the necessary grasp of the issues and potential consequences or the ability to change course if required.
Even its insistence on referring to financial risk assessments rather than affordability checks hints at a reluctance to fully engage with the debate or divert from its chosen course. It is faintly reminiscent of a scene in The Simpsons, when a get-rich-quick con-artist tells Homer he is absolutely not selling him a pyramid scheme. Instead, his fail-safe road to untold wealth is based on a trapezoid.
Past Failures
If that reference brings back some awkward memories for the commissioners, the regulator has only itself to blame. The Commission did license a Ponzi scheme called Football Index a few years ago and allowed it to continue operating for 14 months after senior executives had been explicitly warned the platform was an exceptionally dangerous pyramid scheme. It was still minting new shares just before its collapse, which cost its users more than £100 million.
The Commission could now be seen to be adopting a similar fingers-crossed, hope-we-know-best approach to affordability checks. A sporadic blog covering a pilot of checks was not updated between the spring of 2025 and 18 April, when a fresh post – five days after Noyes highlighted the extended silence – suggested a lot of recent commentary about financial risk assessments had been ill informed or inaccurate.
The same post claimed the pilot had implied less than 3% of active customer accounts would trigger any steps, and that 97% of those would have a frictionless assessment process. But there is no mention of whether these were largely gaming customers or bettors on sport. In a country where 16% of the adult population – about 8 million individuals – is estimated to take part in online gambling in any four-week period, the potential for a grossly disproportionate impact on betting customers is clear.
Conclusion
The Gambling Commission was responsible for a desperate failure of regulation when it licensed Football Index. Before they vote to approve the rollout of affordability checks on Thursday, can the seven commissioners be certain that they are not about to commit another?
